January 6, 2026:
In Ukraine the Russian October air campaign was one of the most intense so far. Russia used over 5,000 Shahed drones, 74 cruise missiles, and 148 ballistic missiles. The targets were components of the Ukrainian energy production network. Russia wanted Ukrainian industries and civilians to suffer as the weather grew colder. Russia is now producing over 5,000 Shaheds a month. Russia calls the Shaheeds it produces the Geran. These 200 kg drones travel at a speed of 180 kilometers an hour at an altitude of about 100 meters. They carry a 50 kg warhead. GPS navigation is jammable when close to the target while the unjammable, but less accurate INS backup is not affected. The Geran is the Russian version of the Iranian Shahed 136 Russia produces under license at a Russian factory built last year.
Over 80 percent of the Gerans have been detected and destroyed by a clever Ukrainian air defense system created by two Ukrainian engineers. Called Sky Fortress, it consists of nearly 10,000 cell phones mounted on two-meter poles with their microphones activated to detect the unique sounds of Gerans flying nearby. All this data goes to a command post where operators can triangulate on, locate and track the incoming drones and direct groups of gun trucks, each equipped with multiple machine-guns and lots of ammunition, to positions the drones will pass over. The gun trucks have managed to destroy most of the drones they encounter. Ukraine has built several hundred of these gun trucks and deploys them quickly via roads or cross country to carry out the interception. This system costs less than a single Patriot air defense missile. This drone defense system is operated by thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, and its simplicity, effectiveness and low cost has led NATO countries to request more details from the Ukrainians, including visits to NATO countries to further explain the system. Russia responded by having their Gerans fly higher, beyond the range of the machine-guns. Ukraine went on to develop new countermeasures.
Year by year Russia and Ukraine develop new offensive weapons to use against each other. Ukrainian air strikes use larger drones at targets deep inside Russia.
Like most western militaries, Russia has become dependent on the use of missiles and drones instead of artillery and airstrikes. Ukraine reports that, from late 2022 through late 2024, Russia used 4,800 missiles and nearly 15,000 attack drones. The missiles are expensive, most costing one or two million dollars each, while some of the drones cost $35,000. More recent drone designs cost only a few hundred dollars each. It was thought that the inexpensive drones would replace the use of 155mm artillery. The range and cost of artillery shells vary from $3,000 to $100,000 depending on its version and purpose. The basic 155mm shell weighs 43 kg and contains about seven kg of explosives. The standard Russian equivalent is the 152mm shell.
The only Russian sources of weapons and munitions have been Iran and North Korea, which has a feeble economy with a GDP of only $30 billion and has long been subject to economic sanctions. Iran is also sanctioned but has oil to export and a GDP of over $400 billion. Iran was also responsible for the recent completion of a Shahed drone manufacturing facility on the Volga River. Russia has over fifty firms manufacturing over two dozen types of drones. These include three dozen different models, most of them with a range of 40 kilometers while about a dozen have ranges of 100 to 2,000 kilometers.
Russia is building a drone manufacturing infrastructure. By 2026 330,000 people will be involved in the development, production, and operation of drones by 2026. By 2035 1.5 million people may be involved in drone design, development and production.
Russia continues to obtain drones and drone construction assistance from Iran. While Russia produces 330-350 Shahed-136 drones per month, Iran also helps out. Russia has manufactured over 2,000 Shahed drones and at least 2,600 have been sent by Iran.