December 28, 2025: While Russia was an early user of Iranian Shaheed drones against Ukraine, the Ukrainians developed more drone innovations and out-produced the Russians, until now. After more than a year of effort, and the use of a special task force called Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies, or just Rubicon, these Russian efforts to reform and upgrade their drone operations have paid off. This year Russia is sending nearly ten times the number of drones against Ukrainian targets than they did last year.

New Russian drones are more capable and are usually sent out in multiple large groups called swarms. The swarms come at targets from different directions and approach at different altitudes before diving at the target. Russia began using more decoys and continually upgraded their electronic warfare techniques to protect the swarms. Russian electronic warfare has always been excellent at protecting troops and facilities from attacks. The Ukrainian drones still get through, but in smaller numbers.

For the first time in over three years of war, the Russians have an advantage in drone war operations. The Ukrainians responded quickly, but suffered a lot of damage while doing so. The novel Russian tactics and equipment prompted the Ukrainians to quickly develop effective countermeasures. Still, there was an increase in Russian drone victories. Ukraine is always working on new technologies and tactics and it will be interesting to see how Ukraine adapts to the new Russian methods.

After all, the original Ukrainian drone proliferation began when many individual Ukrainians, or small teams of civilians, designed and built drones. The drones served as potential candidates for widespread use and mass production. This proliferation of designers and manufacturers led to rapid evolution of drone capabilities and uses. Those who could not keep up were less successful in combat and suffered higher losses. Each month nearly 400,000 drones are now built in Ukrainian factories or home workshops. Most of these workshops are informal affairs, located in spare rooms, garages, barns, empty industrial space or anyplace protected from the weather and aerial surveillance. Russia will hit any drone manufacturing sites if they can identify them.

One result of the Ukraine War was the emergence of inexpensive drones as a decisive weapon as well as a reconnaissance and surveillance system. In 2023, a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Ukrainians were building their own drones, often at home or scattered workshops. By late 2024 Ukrainians were producing over 15o,000 drones a month. In 2025 Ukraine will produce over 400,000 drones a month. By purchasing components in bulk, thousands of Ukrainian men and women are building these drones for the armed forces or for someone they know in the military. Troops at the front also build and modify drones to fit their immediate situations. For the soldiers, designing better drones is often a matter of life or death.

This competitiveness led to First Person View/FPV drones as well as drones guided via Fiber Optic cable Guidance or FOG. Electronic jamming was useless against the FOG drones. The only limitation was the length of the cable. This meant the operator had to be at one end of the kilometers long cable. Operators could be further away if there was time to lay another kilometer or two of cable further to the rear. Ukrainian drone operators often worked in drone workshops before entering the military and were accustomed to upgrading drone operator equipment while in the combat zone. Any successful innovations were made known to workshop operators throughout Ukraine.

This is how the Ukrainians maintain a lead over the Russians in drone technology and production. The Russian government discourages, or even outlaws, individuals building drones, and centralizes drone production. This gives the Ukrainians an edge in drone quantity and quality. The Ukrainians are defending their homeland and Russia is having an increasingly difficult time justifying continued fighting and over a million Russians killed or disabled in Ukraine.

NATO countries are trying to adopt drone technology and use it for their own armed forces. Ukraine has received over $200 billion in military and economic assistance from NATO countries and shares their drone experience and technology with their benefactors. Drones have revolutionized warfare and are causing 70 percent of casualties in Ukraine. The Ukraine War is a battle between industrialized countries employing modern weapons. It is the war of the future that has become what all armed forces in the world must adopt to remain competitive.

Even before the Ukraine War, drones were being used in irregular warfare in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Africa. Drug gangs have used drones to smuggle drugs into the United States, or into a prison to aid in an escape attempt. Drones are everywhere, despite laws in some countries restricting or prohibiting their use.

The latest innovation in drone warfare is the Ukrainian use of AI/Artificial Intelligence for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real and, once a target is confirmed, the AI targeting system needs no further communication with anyone. It is resistant to all forms of jamming.

Modern warfare has been radically changed by the introduction of FPV drones. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to all vehicles, including heavily armored tanks, and infantry on foot. Each FPV drone costs less than a thousand dollars. Operators use the video camera on the drone to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, the drone operators often operate in pairs, with one flying behind the other and concentrating on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When such a target is found by the reconnaissance drone, the armed drone is directed to the target. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. The reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the

The Ukrainians developed the FPV drone in 2022, when only a few FPV drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones. By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army also began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since then, the number of FPV drone attacks has grown exponentially on both sides. Only twelve percent of those attacks led to the destruction of the target, which could be a vehicle or group of infantry or even a sniper who was firing through a window from inside a building. In this case, the armed FPV drone would fly through the window and explode in the room the sniper was in. The only defense from this was having a nearby open door which the sniper could run to or dive through as the FPV drone approached. Sometimes that isn’t possible because the armed FPV drone is coming down from above the window and then in. You don’t see those coming until it’s too late.

Nearly five million drones are being built this year. The total for 2024 was 1.5 million drones. There have been problems. Chinese component producers are having a hard time keeping up, and, last year, to assist the Russians, China halted sending drone components to Ukraine. Suppliers in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere were quickly found. At least 70 percent of Ukrainian drones are built entirely in Ukraine, and the rest from imported parts or whole assemblies. Some Ukrainian firms have improvised by using plywood and similar materials for their drones. For the FPV First Person View drones, cheaper is better if the drone can hit its first and only target. Most Ukrainian drones are FPV models, which are considered a form of ammunition.

Both sides now use the FPV drones, but there are substantial differences in how the FPV drones are put to work in combat. The Ukrainians seek out high-value targets like armored vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, anti-aircraft systems, and storage sites for munitions or other supplies. Russian trucks carrying supplies are another prime target.