June 7, 2026:
While drones have come to dominate military planning worldwide, there is still a case to be made for cheaper missiles. While drones are cheap and can be guided using a variety of technologies, they are propeller driven and relatively slow with speeds of between 50 and 200 kilometers an hour, though faster jet-powered drones are emerging. Much larger Ukrainian multi-ton drones can hit targets over 2,000 kilometers distant while flying low to avoid air defense radars.
Cheap ballistic missiles are a work in progress. Iran developed the Fattah-2 ballistic missile that is touted as costing only about half a million dollars each. That does not include development costs or the costs of launchers, crews as well as storage and support facilities. These items push the per-missile cost up to nearly $2 million. This includes the elaborate guidance system that enables the missile to avoid air defenses and hit specific targets where the most damage will be inflicted. This is what Fattah is costing Iran during the current wartime conditions. Only a few Fattah-2’s used to attack Israel did any damage and the Israeli response was to go after the factories producing components needed for the missile. This has made Fattah-2 much more expensive because of the added expense of rebuilding factories and smuggling in components Iran does not produce.
A Chinese commercial firm developed the $100,000 YKJ-1000 hypersonic missile that can be adapted for use in air defense or bombardment. This missile has a range of up to 1,300 kilometers, with a smaller warhead. In America, this type of weapon would be designed quickly and put into production only during wartime. Chinese commercial producers of weapons are encouraged by the government and allowed to export their weapons to anyone who can pay. This was the same philosophy the Ukrainian government followed with drones, which were developed to defeat the Russian invaders.
Ukraine later developed inexpensive interceptor drones that could take down long-range Russian attack drones as well as GPS guided bombs. What these interceptors could not deal with were ballistic missiles of any kind. For that the Ukrainian use American Patriot missiles and modified versions of air defense missiles provided by other NATO countries. The next major advance in air defense technology is a laser or microwave beam system capable of damaging or destroying incoming ballistic missiles. Israel already has an effective laser system against drones and cruise missiles. A version of this for ballistic missiles is being developed but progress is slow because several new technologies have to be invented, tested and perfected.
Iran developed its delta-wing 200 kg propeller-driven Shahed 136 drone a decade ago and it was first used by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen during 2019. After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Iran provided Russia with Shahed 136s. By the end of 2022 Iran agreed to assist Russia in building a factory in Russia that would produce a Russian version of the Shahed 136 called Geran. Until late 2024, when the Geran factory in Russia was operational, Iran manufactured the Geran and received help from Russia in upgrading the Shaheed drones. Since 2022, Russia has used more than 50,000 Shaheds and Gerans against Ukraine. During 2025 that meant Ukraine had to deal with five to six thousand Gerans a month. Ukrainian interception methods were quite effective, and only about ten percent of the drones reached their targets. Each of these drones costs Russia about $20,000.
To improve the effectiveness of the Shahed, Russia developed a turbojet engine propelled version of their Geran. These drones operate at speeds in excess of 700 kilometers an hour compared to 140 kilometers an hour for the propeller version, and at higher altitudes. The Ukrainian drone interceptor is propeller driven and has a top speed of only 450 kilometers an hour. This means this interceptor can no longer chase down the jet-propelled drones.
The Iranians have developed a drone interceptor missile called 358, which costs about $100,000 each. This system has not been seen in action yet and may be another of the many hypothetical weapons Iran announced but can’t get into service. Iran has used jet powered Shahed recently in the Persian Gulf.
If given enough incentive, like a major war, the industrialized countries could develop and build cheaper, more effective ballistic missiles in large quantities. These missiles would cost from $100,000 to half a million dollars. Ukraine is already doing this on a small scale, as is Russia, to reduce the cost of hitting defended Ukrainian targets.