June 28, 2024: When wars break out, especially between countries with roughly equal capabilities, there are surprises, often unpleasant ones. Peacetime planning cannot capture the impact of a capable and resourceful enemy. The war in Ukraine is the first one between equals since World War II and the expected results have been suitably scary. For example, most of the casualties since the first year of the war are no longer being caused by artillery fire as had been the case for over a century.

After World War II bombs and guided missiles delivered by aircraft reduced dependence on artillery, which used over fifteen tons of shells to cause one enemy casualty. This began to change in the 1990s when JDAM (GPS guidance kits added to unguided bombs) enabled unprecedented precision. This brings us to Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops were the first to realize that cheap quadcopters and locally manufactured fixed wing UAVs were more effective than guided bombs. The drones came in many varieties but the two most common were those designed to find a target and those carrying explosives that hit the target precisely. The recon and some of the attack drones had built in video cameras that transmitted video to the operator a few kilometers away. The drone operator used a headset that covered eyes so he could see the video from the drone. The operator could look down at the control tablet he was holding to send commands to the drone. These are called FPV (First Person View) drones. When there was a lot of jamming, the operator of a FPV attack drone could rely on a guidance system that switched to homing in on the selected target without any intervention from the operator.

Starting in 2023 the proportion of casualties inflicted by UAVs in the Ukraine war soared to more than those inflicted by artillery, and in 2024 an outright majority of all casualties have been inflicted by UAVs.

Currently there is no effective defense from these FPV attack drones, and that’s why these drones cause most of the casualties in Ukraine. Over the last few decades the cost of the FPV drone systems components have come way down, while the size of these components is smaller and more reliable. Overall, the new FPV system made it a lot cheaper to inflict casualties and that had a devastating effect on troop morale. Once you saw or heard the FPV drones you either found a place to hide or became a casualty. Ukraine considers the attack drones rounds of ammunition which are cheaper and more precise than artillery shells. There is still a role for artillery when it comes to destroying structures or blocking access to a road interdiction fire. But when it comes to deliberately causing casualties, drones are the weapon of choice. That’s why Ukraine is building nearly 100,000 drones a month in 2024.