November 7, 2025: The quantity and qualities of people in East Asia are changing. The populations of China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia are aging and shrinking, while India, the Philippines, Vietnam and Australia continue to grow.

Russia has a population of 144 million which is stagnant or declining. Currently Russia is losing population loss because of its war in Ukraine where the fighting has left at least a million Russians dead, disabled or missing plus another million or more military age men fleeing the country to avoid getting mobilized into the army and killed in Ukraine. The Russia birth rate is also declining because of the economic impact of the war. Economic sanctions imposed by NATO countries, which represent half the global GDP of $111 trillion, cuts Russia off from its usual source of imports. Russian oil sales to NATO countries are now being included in the sanctions. Russia can sell that oil elsewhere, but at a lower price. All these problems together mean the Russian birth rate has fallen to 1.4 children. It has to be 2.1 for the population size to be stable. The current birth rate is the lowest in 200 years and liable to get worse the longer Russians are fighting, dying or deserting in Ukraine.

China has an official population of 1.42 billion and an actual population of 800 million or less. The Chinese government went to great lengths to conceal the negative population impact of the one-child policy and covid19. But reports from tourists or commercial travelers indicated there were far fewer Chinese than the government claimed. Satellite photos showed fewer lights where major cities were and many lights for smaller towns were now absent. Unless living in the dark at night became a new Chinese custom, the lower population estimates are apparently accurate.

Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have declining populations because of prosperity and comfortable living conditions. Worldwide, industrialized countries face lower birth rates because of this. The Japanese birth rate is 1.15, Taiwan’s .89, South Korea’s is .75. Other industrialized countries are experiencing similar birth rates. In Italy it’s 1.18, Germany is 1.62. The United States is no exception with a birth rate of 1.58.

India has a population of 1.46 billion. That’s nearly 18 percent of the world population. That is changing as India's birth rate of 1.9 is also below the 2.1 replacement rate. The Philippines birth rate is also 1.9. In Vietnam it’s 1.4, and Australia 1.8. There are nations with high birth rates. Most are in Africa, which has an overall birth rate of 3.1. Worldwide the rate is 1.75.

This will have an impact on economies, military capabilities and relationships with major trading and military partners. Two nations matter the most when it comes to trade. The United States had total exports and imports valued at $5.2 trillion. China did $6.1 trillion in trade. The importance of trade to the Chinese, who now have a declining middle class, is critical. Disrupt economic stability and you have chaos and maybe even another civil war. China builds most of the world’s commercial shipping and it has the world’s largest navy, at least in terms of ship numbers. The United States still has a larger fleet in terms of total tonnage, 11 aircraft carriers and over a century of experience. China may threaten war, but to actually start one would be a political and economic catastrophe for China. Peace through prosperity is more than a catchy slogan.