February 16, 2026:
Two months ago Ukraine used a new submarine version of their Sea Baby naval drone to attack a Russian Kilo Class submarine in the port of Novorossiisk on the east coast of the Black Sea. In response the Russians added several barges to block the entrance to the port and floating boom barriers that include netting underneath the barrier to stop or slow down Ukrainian submersible or surface drones and alert the Russians to an impending attack. The Russians have heavy machine-guns and autocannon systems manned around the clock, ready to open fire on surface drones. New underwater defenses include sonar systems to detect submerged intruders and remotely detonated bottom mines to destroy any threat the sonar systems detect.
The recent attack in Novorossiysk was the first time a drone submarine attacked and crippled a manned submarine. The damaged Kilo was apparently written off as last February Russia shut down all ship repair activities in the Black Sea because of increasing Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. This included the shipyards at Novorossiisk. The damaged Kilo cannot be taken to a submarine repair facility in northwest Russia because Turkey has a treaty allowing it to refuse wartime access to warships in Turkish-controlled waters that are the only exit from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. There is another damaged Kilo stranded in a Crimean shipyard. With its latest Kilo loss, Russia has no operational Kilos in the Black Sea.
The Black Sea Kilos were used to launch Kalibr cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine. Kalibrs launched from Russia are easier to detect and shoot down. The submerged Kilos launched Kalibrs from their torpedo tubes at sea. The cruise missiles reached the surface, and their engines took the Kalibrs to targets anywhere along the Ukrainian Black Sea coast and hundreds of kilometers inland.
Meanwhile Ukraine continues to develop and build naval drones to enable Ukraine to make the Black Sea unusable by Russian commercial shipping as well as warships. The freighters and tankers can use the Turkish exit to the Mediterranean only if they survive Ukrainian naval and land-based drone attacks. In 2024 and most of 2025, Russia and Ukraine avoided attacking each other’s commercial shipping in the Black Sea. But with all the Kilos gone and surface warships withdrawn to Russian ports in the distant ports of the northeastern Black Sea, Ukraine is free to threaten Russian commercial shipping in the Black Sea. Ukraine already has armed commercial merchant raiders firing on Russian commercial shipping in the Mediterranean Sea. The Russians can launch drones and missiles at Ukrainian Black Sea ports but cannot effectively attack commercial shipping in the Black Sea.
Ukraine continues to develop, build and use drones to continue their domination of the Black Sea. Last December Ukraine introduced its Magura V7 naval drone, which weighs about 1.2 tons and can carry 650 kg of weapons. Its operational range is a thousand kilometers. The V7 can also be equipped with an electricity generator, enabling it to stay at sea for up to seven days. This model can move at speeds of up to 72 kilometers an hour. Cruising speed is 43 kilometers an hour.
Ukrainian naval drones have revolutionized naval warfare that takes place within a few hundred kilometers of a coastline. So far, no other navy has shown much interest in duplicating the Ukrainian success with naval drones. The U.S. Coast Guard has used naval drones to assist in interdicting drug smuggling boats. The U.S. Navy has access to Ukrainian naval drone technology and is paying attention because the Chinese are doing a lot of work on naval drones, including a ship described as a drone carrier, equipped with aerial and naval drones.
The Ukrainian experience using naval drones to defeat the Russian Black Sea Fleet was unique. Ukraine had only surface-to-ship missiles when the war started, but eventually shifted to three new naval drones, Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA, or Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus.
Ukrainian drone operations in the Black Sea forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw to the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Sevastopol was no longer a safe place to be, and Russian ships could no longer launch their Kalibr cruise missiles without risking attack by Ukrainian drones. The presence and aggressive use of the drones meant that Ukraine’s grain corridor was kept open despite Russia’s threats to interfere
Russian countermeasures to Ukrainian naval drones included using aircraft and helicopters to destroy slow-moving drones before they attack and expanding use of jamming to disrupt drone control signals. These changes made it much more difficult for Ukrainian naval drones to reach and destroy targets. But by 2025 the Russians had already lost control of the Black Sea and were not getting it back.
The lessons learned by American, Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese, Ukrainian and Russian naval commanders is that these drones have changed the rules for naval warfare. If China tries to invade Taiwan, they have to prepare countermeasures for numerous naval drones blocking the way. Everyone continues to observe Black Sea operations for details on what new tactics, techniques and drone’s designs appear. The U.S. has an edge because they are a major supporter of Ukraine and are seeking to make the most of their insider knowledge of the Ukrainian naval drone effort.