February 2, 2026: China is adopting a centuries old concept to enhance its naval combat effectiveness.  Last year a photograph was taken in a Chinese shipyard near Shanghai which revealed a cargo ship being equipped with shipping containers containing missiles. This was nothing new for the Chinese but, in addition to the container ship, a number of other commercial ships were being modified to support amphibious operations. There was also a truck on the deck of a ship. The truck carried a catapult for launching large drones. These drones could be used for reconnaissance and surveillance or armed with explosives for attacks on ships or land targets.

All this is part of a Chinese program to adapt commercial shipping, including Roll on Roll Off/RoRo ships, to be part of an amphibious operation against Taiwan, or a surprise attack on the United States as part of an invasion of Taiwan. An alarming such ship is an armed merchant raider with armed drones in vertical launch tubes and catapults for launching very large drones carrying scores of smaller armed drones. Several such armed merchant raiders could wreck an American aircraft carrier battle group, a naval base or a coastal Air Force base.

For nearly thirty years China has been making serious preparations to launch an amphibious operation to conquer Taiwan. The latest development is a barge that carries a 130 meter long road platform that can be used on coastal areas that lack beaches but are close to roads. The new Chinese landing barges can approach these areas once Chinese commandos or paratroopers have seized a small portion. The barge gets close enough to the coastline for its road platform to be shoved or carried forward somehow to plop down near a coastal road. Then amphibious or RoRo ships come up behind the barge and drive vehicles, including tanks, onto the barge, across the road platform onto Taiwanese territory near a road. Currently, there are only six potential invasion beaches in Taiwan. The new road platform barge means Taiwan has to reconsider its defense plan against amphibious landings.

Last year Chinese leader Xi Jinping decided to seize or try to seize Taiwan before the end of the decade. Xi realizes Taiwan has a say in this matter and wants to mobilize sufficient forces and create the right psychological conditions in China and Taiwan. This includes having Chinese naval and air forces operating near Taiwan on a regular basis, so the Taiwanese military is not alarmed every time Chinese forces operate near the island.

Some of these forces that regularly appear off the Taiwanese cast are those that would be used if China were seeking to blockade Taiwan. Chinese military forces will eventually blockade Taiwan and prevent any ships from getting in or out.

Preparations are also being made inside China. Laws have been passed allowing China to quickly nationalize foreign assets as part of a program to keep the Chinese people supplied if there are an international embargo and economic sanctions. China also plans to increase its emergency petroleum stockpile so there will be supplies for years of isolation. China is also building a pipeline to get petroleum to areas that normally receive it from the nearest coastal city and port. China is purchasing oil from as many suppliers as possible as these nations will feel the economic pain if China is embargoed because it seized Taiwan.

Xi Jinping expects most of the nations in the world to oppose a seizure of Taiwan. To deal with that, China is reducing its holdings of American government bonds. This reduces the damage to China if the United States declares war and seizes whatever Chinese assets it can. China hopes such a war will not involve much military action beyond that needed to blockade China. According to Chinese plans, that blockade would last a few years and would then be lifted because so many nations want to end their economic suffering because trade with China was blocked. China is the second largest, after the United States, trading nation in the world and taking Chinese trade out of circulation would cause worldwide suffering. In theory, it would be worse for China but not if China can build up large enough reserves of essential industrial supplies oil and food to survive the economic catastrophe China created. These Chinese moves would lead to economic disruption outside China for years and have a lasting impact that could take a decade or more to recover from.

The Chinese plans are theoretical at the moment even though China is quietly implementing some aspects of their surviving the expected worldwide economic disruption a seizure of Taiwan would lead to. Another problem is that enough details of the Chinese plan have become known to trading partners and nations willing to use military and economic force to block a Chinese attack on Taiwan. China wants to avoid a war but Taiwan and its military allies, especially the United States, are willing to meet force with force. China doesn’t want to get into a war because its forces are untested and, as recent corruption scandals have demonstrated, led by generals who are more concerned with getting rich than getting ready for war.

Taiwan and its allies have been increasing their military preparations for over a decade. This began before the current Chinese economic and military activities and China is now seen reacting to efforts to make the Chinese plans more difficult to implement. Taiwan has purchased new weapons as well as increasing stockpiles of ones it already has. That means more warships, warplanes, and equipment for ground forces.

Taiwan is the most troublesome independent portion of China. After World War II Taiwan acquired protection from the United States before the new communist Chinese government could get organized and do anything about the troublesome Chinese province of Taiwan.