April 16, 2026: Ukraine is on the offensive while Russia is sliding into bankruptcy. Russian offensive operations have stalled in the past few months while Ukrainian forces advance, often unopposed because there are no Russian troops available to stop them. Ukrainian drone production from local factories have Russian troops fleeing or committing suicide rather than face obliteration by these drone swarms.

Meanwhile Ukraine is exporting thousands of defensive interceptor drones to Persian Gulf states. These drones are used to destroy Iranian drones unleashed against the Gulf States and their critical oil production facilities. In March, the number of combat sorties of drone interceptors and the number of targets destroyed in Ukraine increased by over 50 percent compared to the previous month. FPV/First Person View drones are now causing 90 percent of Russian losses.

At the same time Ukraine increased the procurement of engineering mines and explosives for drones. In the first three months of 2026 quantities equaled more than half the purchases in 2025 and they will be significantly greater by the end of the year. Munitions for drones enables targeted strikes against infantry and vehicles without use of expensive 155mm shells or artillery rockets. They are used against the enemy where other means are ineffective, and save artillery and missile resources for more substantial targets.

Ukraine has become Europe’s source for drone warfare innovation. Ukraine is the testing ground for a new generation of drones capable of flying 20 kilometers through electronic warfare defenses while carrying ten to twenty kg of explosives. In late March Ukrainian Air Assault Forces Command revealed that it had halted a Russian advance near the border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk provinces.

While Russia continues to advance overall, Ukraine has reclaimed 470 square kilometers of occupied territory this year, marking its first territorial gains since 2023. Ukraine provided more than enough evidence to support the liberation of at least 334 square kilometers and this is believed to underestimate Ukrainian advances. Meanwhile the Russian rate of advance has declined by two-thirds over the past 18 months.

Russian forces advanced at a rate of 14.9 square kilometers a day from October 2024 to March 2025, compared with 10.7 square kilometers a day from March 1, 2025, to October 1 and 5.5 square kilometers a day in the first three months of 2026.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy declared that the front-line situation is the best it has been in 10 months. The offensive Russia was planning for March were thwarted ⁠ by the Ukrainian forces. That is why the Russians will attempt to increase their number of attacks.

Ukraine began attacking Russia’s two oil export terminals on the Baltic Sea to deny Russian efforts to benefit from increasing oil income. Oil companies warned buyers they could declare force majeure on supply contracts from major Baltic Sea ports. Oil export facilities at the Baltic’s Ust-Luga and Primorsk account for about 60 percent of Russia’s oil export capacity. The closure of one will significantly restrict Russia’s ability to generate income for its war in Ukraine.

So far Russia lost 40 to 43 percent of its oil export capacity and oil exports had fallen from four million to 2.32 million barrels per day. These operations have also reduced the domestic oil supply.

The loss of Ust-Luga also means reductions of oil refining at four of the largest refineries in European Russia, Kirishi, Yaroslavl, Moscow and Ryazan. These facilities refine about 55 million metric tons of oil each year. That’s 400,000 barrels per day. Ukraine also attacked the Kirishi and Yaroslavl refineries in late March. The Russian government banned exports of vehicle fuel between April and July in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices. Russia banned vehicle fuel exports in September in response to Ukrainian attacks on refineries.

Ukraine has also been attacking Russian munitions manufacturing. Ukraine attacked the Promsintez explosives plant using Flamingo drones. Promsintez produces 30,000 tons of military explosives a year. Russia admitted that it has lost 45 percent of its missile production because of these attacks.