July 14, 2026:
Last month, Ukrainian drones hit more than 200,000 Russian targets. This killed or wounded nearly 30,000 troops and, increasingly, demoralized the survivors. This explains the growing number of Russian deserters and surrenders to Ukrainian soldiers.
The number of attacks has been growing over the last few months, causing panic in the Russian High Command. The attacks have made it difficult, and sometimes impossible, to deliver supplies and reinforcements to Russian front-line units. Long-range Ukrainian drones have, over the last year, continued attacking economic and military targets deep inside Russia. This has caused fuel shortages for civilians and the military alike. The attacks have caused thousands of civilians to leave the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian response has been weakening, with Ukraine carrying out up to 60 percent more drone attacks. On the ground, the growing use of wheeled or tracked ground drones has made it easier to resupply Ukrainian soldiers. Armed combat drones are covering more of the front line. The drone operators are dozens of kilometers away, but each operator can monitor the camera feeds from several drones and activate the drone weapons as needed.
Ukraine uses 30 percent more drones than Russia. In the first half of 2025, there was a sharp increase in Russian use of attack drones, primarily FPV\First Person View drones. The Ukrainian drone advantage slowed, stopped, and sometimes reversed the momentum of the Russians' offensive operations
It’s a similar situation with the daily percentage of drones operating with FOG\Fiber Optic Guidance. These drones are controlled via a fiber-optic cable that can be many kilometers long. FOG drones cannot be jammed. For Ukraine, 32 percent of drones use FOG guidance while the Russians use only 24 percent. Use of FOG drones by both sides has been so extensive that birds use discarded fiber-optic wires for bird nests.
The Ukrainians were faster at developing innovations in drone design. The Russians imitate this progress but are always a few months or more behind.
In some parts of the 1,100-kilometer front line, the Russians can concentrate more drones than the Ukrainians have for offensive operations. There are fewer Russian offensives due to high casualties, troop shortages, and declining troop morale. The Ukrainians have taken advantage of this and are reclaiming more territory from the Russians. At this rate, the Russians might be pushed out of Ukraine by 2027. One factor making this possible is the increasing number of long-range attacks against Russian refineries, pipelines, weapons, and electronics manufacturing. Last month, in a particularly bold move, Ukraine sent nearly a hundred drones against the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, which is 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine. While the Russians admitted they had to delay some operations at Plesetsk, it remains unclear how much, if any, damage the drones caused to the facility.
These Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia are disrupting Russian efforts to use their air defense systems effectively, or at all. The S300 and S400 air defense batteries have to be moved by rail or barge to new locations. The Ukrainian drones are now equipped with guidance systems that can attack one of several targets, depending on which has the fewest air defenses protecting it. The air defense crisis also means that front-line troops are often left with little or no air defense systems.
For Russia, the most damaging Ukrainian innovation in drone warfare is their use of AI/Artificial Intelligence for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real, and once a target is confirmed, the AI targeting system needs no further communication with anyone. It is resistant to all forms of jamming.
Modern warfare has been radically changed by the introduction of FPV drones. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry on foot. Each FPV drone costs less than a thousand dollars. Operators use the drone's video camera to see what is below and locate targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or on infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, the drone operators often operate in pairs, with one flying behind the other and concentrating on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When the reconnaissance drone finds such a target, the armed drone is directed to it. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. The reconnaissance drones are often unarmed, so they can spend more time in the air searching for a target.