June 19, 2026: China and Russia are among the top three military spenders. Both are surpassed by America, which is currently spending over a trillion dollars a year on defense. China is allegedly spending nearly $340 billion and Russia, which is still at war in Ukraine, is spending more than $200 billion. China and Russia are also allies and trading partners. The reality is somewhat different. Both countries are constantly and quietly spying on each other. China has become the second-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of nearly $19 trillion compared to Russia’s about two trillion dollars. Because of this disparity, Russia is constantly trying to steal Chinese technology and reproduce it in a way that enables them to claim they also developed similar tech. During most of the 1945–91 Cold War, the Russian economy was larger, especially on a per-capita basis, and the Chinese grew increasingly bold in stealing Russian technology. While the Russians complained, they were restrained about it because they valued China as a diplomatic and military ally.

The Chinese economy didn’t begin to grow until the 1980s, when China finally underwent the industrial revolution. This was something of a shock to the Russians, who thought it would take the Chinese much longer to industrialize and create an economy second only to the Americans’. This is what caused the Russian envy and rampant theft of Chinese technology. By the 21st century, it also became obvious that the Chinese military had modernized to the point that China was a potential military threat to Russia. For example, China never renounced its claims on Russian territory in the Far East, where the Russian city of Vladivostok was, until 1860, the Chinese city of Yongmingcheng. The Russian Far East is already dominated economically by the Chinese, and the Russians know the Chinese want these territories back. Russia would probably comply because they need China as an ally and are too weak economically and militarily to resist such Chinese demands.

Meanwhile, China is already overshadowing Russia in diplomatic terms. Three years ago, China got credit for arranging a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which involved these two long-time antagonists resuming diplomatic relations and halting military operations against each other. This was a major achievement for China, which has long been neutral, or pro-Iranian, in the sometimes violent conflict between Iran and the Arab oil states as well as most Western nations. While this preliminary agreement made for great headlines and indicated a decline in American influence in Saudi Arabia, it was not a done deal. The announcement was about intentions, not actual accomplishments. Iran has a long history of violating agreements. Iran was still subject to economic sanctions by Western nations because of continued Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Earlier this year the Israelis and Americans went to war with Iran in an effort to end the Islamic religious dictatorship that had been, for over forty years, a homicidal threat to America, and Israel, as well as the Persian Gulf states and most countries in the region.

Iran, China, and Russia have long been allies, diplomatically if not economically and militarily. During the Iran War, Iranian oil exports to China were disrupted. This was bad news for China, who recently discovered that their national petroleum reserve was empty, with corrupt officials secretly selling the oil and pocketing the proceeds. These officials never expected the oil reserve to be needed and now it was and China could only depend on the smaller supplies of oil Russia supplied via a pipeline. At the same time, China was quick to send air defense systems to Iran during a pause in the Iran War. The Americans are aware of the Chinese dependence on Iranian oil and don’t want to block that trade any longer than necessary. After all, it was the Japanese fears of losing access to European controlled oil in 1941 that led to Pearl Harbor and a war with America. China would be similarly upset if their Iranian oil supply was threatened.

Despite that, there are still suspicions. For example, Russia has sent troops stationed on border areas to Ukraine but still keeps somewhat more than token forces on portions of its 4,200-kilometer Chinese border. There, Russia faces, for the first time, a larger, better-armed, trained, and led Chinese army. China has unresolved claims on most of the Russian Pacific coast territories. Russia also has a 17-kilometer border with North Korea, and Russian troops are sometimes seen there as well. Since the Ukraine War began, fewer Russian troops have been seen on other foreign borders. That’s because the crisis in Ukraine demanded more troops to replace losses.

The scale and scope of Russian army losses in Ukraine is unprecedented. While air force and navy losses were relatively minor, the SRF/Strategic Rocket Forces and their thousands of nuclear warheads still have the same number of troops, so the Russian state is still secure. Neighboring China also has lots of nukes, with more of them aimed at Russia than ever before. That is not the major Chinese threat to Russia. Rather, it is Russian dependence on Chinese economic and military cooperation. China remains on good terms with Russia economically and militarily. China warned Russia to back off on nuclear threats over the Ukraine War and made it clear that China considered the Ukraine War a major mistake. Before 2022, Russia and China were seen as a powerful military and economic alliance. Now the Russian military is revealed to be much less capable than previously thought. Western sanctions have devastated the Russian economy, and China will benefit from that at the expense of Russia. What happened to Russia in Ukraine was their own fault.

China insists it will continue to maintain pressure against its opponents in territorial disputes. Chief among these is the Chinese effort to gain control of Taiwan, plus Indian territory that China claims is illegally occupied by India. Then there is the most blatant claim of all: ownership of the South China Sea. All these claims are vigorously opposed by growing coalitions of powerful countries. Russia supports these Chinese claims, which costs Russia nothing diplomatically or monetarily. This is an example of how far Russia will go to placate the Chinese, and not much farther.