April 8, 2025: Recently the ruling military junta was dismayed to realize that they only controlled 44 percent of the country. Year by year junta control over the country declines, with no end in sight. Despite that, the junta leaders declare that January 2026 national elections will be held. This is unlikely because the junta rules through fear and intimidation. Even those living in areas under government control were reluctant to participate in elections where popular candidates are intimidated and voters who might vote against the junta are threatened.

Outside Myanmar, few countries support the junta and many openly oppose the military government and its deplorable activities against their citizens. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations/ASEAN member states, South Korea, and India have openly rebuked the junta’s election plans and will not provide technical support for a process that simply cannot be credible, free or fair.

In late 2024 remaining junta control over ever smaller portions of the country declined. While Myanmar became quieter for a while after the military junta allowed democracy to return in 2010, by late 2023 there was a major outbreak of violence by northern rebels against soldiers stationed in the north. This led to chaos in the north where non-tribal residents fled south and large groups of armed and angry tribal rebels moved south along with them. The army never expected this and now fighting continues in the north outside, and sometimes inside, towns where there is an army garrison. With few troops left in the area, the Myanmar military sent its warplanes to bomb towns believed to be occupied by rebels. This was an imprecise operation and many civilians were killed.

Myanmar is still subject to violence from tribal separatist militias in the north plus radical Buddhist groups. There was another military coup in early 2021, a decade after the 1962 military junta finally gave in to demands for freedom and democracy. By 2010 the army had failed at running the economy or dealing with the rebellious northern tribes. The military negotiated a deal with the democrats that left the military with some of their political power as well as immunity from prosecution or retribution for a long list of past crimes. Once elections were held, the generals realized they had underestimated the degree of popular anger at the decades of military misrule. After 2011, with Myanmar governed by a government answerable to the people, not a military caste, there were calls for canceling the political privileges the military had retained as part of their agreement to allow peaceful transfer of power. The late 2020 nationwide elections put into power a government that finally had the votes, and determination, to cut the military down to size and make them much less capable of another coup. The generals moved faster than the new government and once more took control of the country in early 2022.

There was growing armed and unarmed opposition to the military which resulted in over a thousand dead and nearly 12,000 arrested. The economy was in shambles but, despite that, the population resisted and the survival of the military junta depends on how much China wants to spend saving them. China refused to contribute more than token assistance, while the rebel militias in the north became more powerful and the Myanmar army began to collapse, along with the military junta when there was another major uprising in late 2023 that started in the north and is ongoing.

Then in 2024 rare earth deposits were found in Myanmar. Rare earths are extremely valuable and used for the production of high-end electronics. Myanmar had these materials and China wanted them. The Chin rebels on the border wanted a piece of the action and that held up shipments to China until it was discovered who was blocking the shipments. Chinese border guards were ordered to let the rare earth shipments in and threatened the Chin rebels with loss of access to China and the weapons and other supplies obtained inside China.

Meanwhile, in the northwest, fighting between tribal rebels and the army in Rakhine State has intensified, and because of this several hundred thousand villagers have fled their homes. Many traveled all the way to the state capital, which is seen as the safest spot in Rakhine State. The army also revived Internet restrictions which had been lifted earlier. The result was that most cellphone users in Rakhine State get only slow 2G Internet speeds. This made it difficult to access pro-rebel websites, and most others as well.

Most of the rebels involved belong to the AA/Arakan Army. Many AA attacks are ambushes or raids on road traffic, outposts or border posts. Control of the roads is essential for the army, which depends on regular deliveries of all sorts of supplies. The army also has some air support, mostly surveillance but also occasional airstrikes. The rebels know the mountains and forests, which the army enters and moves through more slowly. The war up here is about driving away locals who can provide support for the rebels. Most of these civilians have nothing to do with the rebels and see themselves as innocent victims of random military violence. There is some truth to that because troops often loot abandoned villages or rape female refugees they catch up with.

The rebels have another advantage in that their attacks are more precise and involve much less firepower. The soldiers spend most of their time wandering around in the forests seeking rebels who move faster in the bush and usually detect the troops before the soldiers can spot any rebels. Hiring, or forcing, local hunters to guide the troops rarely works because the local guides hate the troops and know that the rebels won’t forget if such guides and trackers cause rebel casualties.

Rebels attack outposts and border posts for loot. These attacks are not just about stealing some weapons and other gear, but also to intimidate border guards and troops into backing off on border security. A major source of income for the AA is getting illegal drugs from nearby Shan State, where most illegal drugs in the country are produced, into Bangladesh. The AA also works with Myanmar Rohingya refugees just across the border in Bangladesh.

The AA has support from one of the rebel coalitions, the NA, or Northern/Brotherhood Alliance tribal rebels, who refuse to attend peace talks unless the junta allows the Arakan Army, or AA, to attend. The AA and the army have been fighting for over seven years with no end in sight. The government, pressured by the army, declared the AA an outlaw organization in early 2020. The other tribal rebels disagreed and saw the army as the true outlaws. No long-term peace deal is possible without the NA and some NA members are still engaged in combat with the army.

All NA members agree that if the AA is not allowed to attend peace conferences, neither will any NA member. The NA consists of four tribal militias: TNLA/ Tang National Liberation Army, AA, MNDAA/ Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and KIA/Kachin Independence Army. The NA exists because its members refused to sign the 2015 Myanmar Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement/NCA. Those who did sign the NCA have made progress in working out differences with the junta and military. The army, which tends to do as it likes in the tribal areas of the north, is the primary cause for violence. China is also involved because Northern Alliance members survive via their access to China. The access is tolerated as long as these Myanmar rebels do not let the fighting spread into China or interfere with Chinese commercial operations in Myanmar. This includes the BRI/Belt and Road Initiative project, which NA members object to. So do other tribal rebels while the largest such group, the UWSA/United Wa State Army, boycotts peace conferences and otherwise tries to get their point across to the army and the junta.

Army leaders have become more outspoken about foreign support the tribal rebels are receiving. The generals won’t come right out and name China, but it is no secret that China has done little to curb Chinese weapons dealers from selling all manner of military small arms to tribal rebels and getting it across the border into Myanmar. That cannot be done without the acquiescence of the Chinese government. In this way the Chinese are sending a message to the Myanmar generals, who the Chinese see as equally responsible for the violence in the north, sometimes right on the Chinese border. Both the rebels and the army are often using Chinese weapons and ammunition against each other. There are not a lot of casualties and most of them are from army convoys being ambushed or the army firing into pro-rebel villages to drive the civilians, and any rebels, out and into the bush. The army does not have enough troops to occupy all the territory they push tribal rebels and civilians out of. Often the rebels, if not the civilians, at least not right away, come back and resume attacking convoys and patrols.

Rebellions in Rakhine and down along the coast are nothing new in this area, which has long been known as the Arakan coast and similar names hinting at an interesting past. In recent years there have even been calls for the restoration of the Arakan Empire, which ceased to exist over 240 years ago. This is a renewal of ancient feuds over who should control the northwest coast of Myanmar, an area with a long history as an independent Arakan state. For example, in late 2017 ARSA/Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, the new Islamic terror group in Myanmar called for Rohingya to join with al Qaeda to fight the Myanmar army and establish Rakhine State as the independent Moslem Arakan. This refers to the Arakan region, which is the coastal area that includes Rakhine State and the coastal area along the Bay of Bengal from eastern Bangladesh down deep into Myanmar. Some 1800 years ago Arakan became an independent Hindu state but 500 years later Islam spread to the area in part because Arakan was one of the many branches of the ancient Silk Road from China.

The population was largely Bengali and Myanmaran. In the 18th century the Myanmar kingdom to the east conquered the area but lost it to the British colonial forces a century later. After that most of Arakan became part of the post-colonial nation of Myanmar. When the British left in the late 1940s they had created a Myanmar with unique borders and many citizens who were not ethnic Myanmar. For Islamic radicals, Arakan, like Spain, Portugal and parts of the Balkans are still considered part of the Caliphate/Islamic Empire because they had once been ruled by Moslems. The current inhabitants of these lost territories are now largely non-Moslem and have no interest in becoming Islamic states again. Despite that, groups like al Qaeda saw opportunities in Myanmar.

Islamic terrorists first showed up in late 2016 and August 2017 when there were attacks by a Rohingya Islamic terrorist group called ARSA. Its founder, a Rohingya expatriate, and much of the cash came from Saudi Arabia. Myanmar prefers to call groups like ARSA Islamic terrorists but until ARSA and the Saudi cash showed up there had not been much, if any, religious aspect to the armed Rohingya resistance. ARSA was openly calling for Rohingya worldwide to support a war against Myanmar for the bad treatment the Rohingya have received, especially since 2012. Until the 2017 announcement ARSA had denied any connection with al Qaeda but that eventually changed.

The ARSA leader, Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi or just Ata Ullah, has received more attention now that Islamic terror groups like al Qaeda are calling for its members to help ARSA and the Myanmar Rohingya any way they can. Since August 2017 there have been no more large scale ARSA attacks but there have been some clashes with security forces. For the moment ARSA is largely a force on the Internet, not on the ground.

Since 2018 Rakhine State has been the scene of soldiers fighting the Arakan Army rebels for control of territory. Along the west coast in Rakhine and Chin states the fighting is mainly about the army effort to control and tax illegal activities by tribesmen. The tribes have been mistreated by the military for so long it is difficult to generate a lot of trust and put an end to the armed resistance.

The Arakan Army had been avoiding soldiers since a series of clashes in late 2015 ended badly for the rebels. Clashes resumed in early 2016 as troops moved into territory where Arakan Army rebels were known to operate. All this was unexpected because the northwest coast has not had as much tribal violence as states to the east. In this case the Arakan Army had help from Kachin State tribal rebels and have become a problem on both sides of the Bangladesh border. The junta ordered the army to increase its efforts to destroy the Arakan Army and the successful clashes in late 2015 led to the military working with police to find and arrest the many Arakan Army supporters in the area. Unlike most tribal militias in the north, the Arakan Army was never given official recognition, in large part because the Arakan Army was more of a gangster operation than tribal rebels. All this police activity was unpopular but at least it was less arbitrary and lawless than in the past when soldiers would torture and kill people they picked up. That sort of behavior has always been illegal but few violators were prosecuted. In 2020 those illegal practices returned in a big way as the army sought to shut down the Arakan rebels once and for all.