February 6, 2025:
Filipino patience with China over the South China Sea is running out. Last year saw the Chinese ramming Filipino ships as well as using water cannon against them. The ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea continue to escalate as the Chinese openly and aggressively drive Filipino navy ships from areas the Philippines have long controlled. In 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Netherlands ruled that under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea regarding the case brought by the Philippines in 2013 protesting Chinese claims and activities in the South China Sea. China claimed 90 percent of the South China Sea. Over the last sixteen years China has been increasingly aggressive while asserting those claims. While this recently escalated to using water cannon and ramming, past efforts are more tangible like the artificial islands built throughout the South China Sea and garrisoned with heavily armed Chinese forces.
The United States and other Western and local allies like Australia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore send warships and aircraft into the disputed areas to confront the Chinese. The message is that if China wants to start World War 3 in the South China Sea, the opposition will be substantial and include most of China’s neighbors.
An added problem for the Chinese was the 2022 election of Ferdinand Bongbong Romualdez Marcos Jr. as the Filipino president. Nicknamed Bongbong, the new president was the son of an ousted prior Filipino president. Bongbong was a populist reformer who delivered on his campaign promises to reform the laws that made it difficult for Filipino farmers to make a living. Bongbong also upgraded and reinforced the armed forces, as well as military alliances with the United States and local nations that were also threatened by China.
The Philippines increased its military presence and activities in the South China Sea, especially around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, where it claims sovereignty over parts of the disputed waters and features. The country has also received support from its allies, such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, in conducting joint exercises and patrols, as well as providing military assistance and equipment. However, China has also intensified its operations and use of coercion in the region, deploying more ships, aircraft, and missiles, and building new structures and facilities on the artificial islands it occupies.
The risk of miscalculation and escalation remains high as China continues to ignore a 2016 ruling by the international Permanent Court of Arbitration. China had previously agreed to abide by the terms of the court ruling but denied knowledge of any previous agreement when the Philippines resisted Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. The international support the Philippines received to confront China has stalled the Chinese plans to occupy and fortify all the islands in the South China Sea,
The Philippines continues to deal with some problems with terrorist groups such as the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF, the Islamic State-affiliated Abu Sayyaf Group and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. These three groups have been much reduced after years fighting Filipino soldiers, marines and special operations forces, are no longer much of a threat and spend most of their time just trying to survive. The communist New People's Army, or NPA, was even more diminished, in most of the country are a dim memory and, in the few places where NPA still operate, they are regarded as bandits with political pretensions.
The Moslem resistance in the south had been settled by the 2019 Bangsamoro Organic Law granting greater autonomy and representation to the Muslim-majority areas in the south as part of the peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the largest rebel group that renounced violence and joined the political process. By 2023 Islamic terrorists and communist rebels were much less active because there were a lot fewer of them and there was much less popular support. The government received record high approval ratings from the voters even as local and foreign critics accuse the government of atrocious behavior. Despite the decline in violence, on January 22, 2025, MILF gunmen ambushed an army patrol on Basilan island, killing two soldiers and wounding twelve others. Local Moslem authorities condemned the attack and assured the government that the killers would be tracked down with the help of locals who knew the territory.
The Philippines has maintained a balance between its alliance with the United States and its economic ties with China. The Philippines reaffirmed its commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, which provide for mutual defense and security cooperation, as well as access to military bases and facilities. The country has also welcomed the U.S. support for its maritime claims and rights in the South China Sea, as well as the U.S. sanctions against Chinese officials and entities involved in the disputes. However, the Philippines has also sought to improve diplomatic relations with China, which is its largest trading partner and a major source of investment. The Philippines sought to manage and resolve the territorial disputes through dialogue and diplomacy, rather than confrontation and arbitration, as it did in 2016 when it won a landmark case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated China's expansive claims in the South China Sea.
Meanwhile the Philippines has an unemployment rate of about five percent, inflation is about three percent in 2025, the local currency, the peso, has stabilized its exchange rate versus the dollar to between 55 and 60 pesos to the dollar. Economic growth for 2025 is forecast at six percent.
Decades of effort finally reduced or eliminated the internal threat of leftist and Islamic rebellions. Now most Filipinos are more concerned about endemic corruption, but optimistic in the progress made since 2023 to reduce drug addiction and reduce drug smuggling.
There is also the Chinese threat, with more Chinese warships showing up in what had been, until recently, unquestionably Filipino controlled waters. Most Filipinos see China as a threat but not as crucial as the internal problems with drugs, corruption, Islamic terrorism, and unemployment.
In 2016 President Rodrigo Duterte did what most Filipinos wanted to reduce crime and drug violence. Duterte was succeeded by Ferdinand Marcos Jr., also known as Bongbong, in 2023. The new president continued what Duterte had been doing. This includes maintaining the peace deal with Moslem separatists in the south and continuing to diminish leftist rebel movements.