December 18, 2025: Venezuela is in trouble. In the last eleven years seven million Venezuelans have left their homeland. Currently Venezuela currently has 31 million people and one of the lowest, 127th out of 180 per capita incomes in the world. Currently the U.S. offers a $50 million reward to anyone who provides information that leads to the arrest of Nicolas Maduro.

Recently the U.S. increased its efforts to remove Maduro from power and halt the illegal drugs being shipped from Venezuela to the United States. The U.S. has already destroyed about two dozen speedboats carrying narcotics from Venezuela to the United States.

Recently the United States had deployed dozens of ships and aircraft to operate off the Venezuelan coast in preparation for a possible landing in Venezuela to support the opposition. Most Venezuelans did not vote for Maduro in the last elections, but he controlled the vote counting and declared himself the winner. There are many public protests this, but Maduro had his loyal and well-paid security forces disperse or arrest the protesters.

An aircraft carrier and two amphibious assault ship groups, each carrying 5,000 sailors and marines. These groups also have 30 helicopters for delivering troops to land areas, which can be far inland. Also in the area are maritime patrol aircraft and bombers that can be flown in from their bases in the United States. The carrier has F-18 and F-35 aircraft. Additional F-35s can operate from bases in Puerto Rico. The CIA has been ordered to operate or reinforce ongoing operations in Venezuela. There is apparently a support ship offshore for the CIA personnel.

By mid-December the Americans had increased pressure by declaring the Venezuelan government a terrorist organization. The U.S. is also seizing tankers taking oil to Iran or other sanctioned nations, like Cuba. The U.S. Navy is preventing tankers from entering or leaving Venezuelan waters. It’s an economic blockade that will force Maduro to flee the country or worse.

Twelve years ago, the U.S. expelled two Venezuelan diplomats in retaliation for Venezuela expelling two American diplomatic officials. The U.S. had hoped that the designated successor to the recently deceased Hugo Chavez, Nicolás Maduro, might be interested in improving relations with the United States. This was not the case, and the Venezuelan government encouraged anti-American rumors and fantasies in the wake of Chavez dying. Maduro does not have the charisma of Chavez and apparently will rely on using anti-American rants to maintain popular support.

The leftist government was determined to survive the death of founder Hugo Chavez, by being even less circumspect in breaking laws to stay in power. Chavez always tried to stay within the law sufficiently to avoid a lot of international criticism, but his successors appear rather more desperate. Inside Venezuela opponents were pressured by Chavez with economic loss and imprisonment to go along or remain silent. Chavez made it easy for dissidents to just leave the country. Despite all that, there is still popular opposition, and it was getting stronger as the socio-economic situation of rising unemployment, inflation, corruption, and crime grew worse.

Chavez used a lot of Cuban military, economic, and political advisers to create his socialist state, and Chavez followers could just declare the establishment of a dictatorship and try the police state tactics that kept the Cuban dictatorship in power for over fifty years. Then again, maybe not, because Venezuela is not an island and rebels would have sanctuaries handy. Then there was the fact that most Venezuelans know how the Cuban revolution turned out and that is not something most Venezuelans aspired to. But dictatorship is what Venezuela was headed for if the Chavez followers wanted to hang on to power and, for the ruling socialist elite, prosperity. Unlike Cuba, Venezuela had oil but less of it. Mismanagement and corruption during a decade of Chavez rule crippled Venezuelan oil production. There was still a lot of money coming in each month and that buys a lot of support. Continued leftist control of the economy is not likely to halt the decline in oil sales. Then there’s the problem that Venezuela produces dirty oil that is more expensive to refine into usable products. That makes it harder to sell at a good price in a market with decline, because of all that new fracked gas and oil prices. For the successors of Chavez, oil is becoming a curse because to their followers, oil is more an illusion than salvation.

Currently the American problem with Maduro is that the country has become a haven for drug smuggling gangs that seek to transport their drugs to the United States using speedboats. That worked for a while until the U.S. military noted the expensive boats and received orders to destroy them. Now the U.S. has an aircraft carrier task force off Venezuela with amphibious assault ships carrying over a thousand heavily armed marines. Maduro is reported to be preparing to flee the country and get to Iran. Maduro has a lot of money stashed in banks around the world, especially banks with a reputation for successfully resisting various governments from seizing his foreign assets.

While still in Venezuela Maduro has mobilized the allegedly well paid and even more allegedly loyal national military and the civilian Bolivarian Militia to resist an American invasion. Many, if not most Venezuelans would welcome U.S. soldiers and marines. Some of those troops may include Venezuelan exiles who, as many exiles do, joined the military. It’s a quick path to U.S. citizenship and even a free trip home if your homeland requires a visit by the American military.

The 2024 elections put Nicolas Maduro back in office for another six years of misrule in Venezuela. The problem was that his opponent Maria Corina Machado won the vote by a large majority. Maduro, as the incumbent, controlled the counting of votes. Even though surveys indicated most voters chose Machado, Maduro managed to rig the outcome to favor him. There were days of riots over this vote tampering. Maduro still had the support of the security forces and was able to jail hundreds of demonstrators and survive this popular uprising against him.

Now Maduro must face or ignore a host of old problems. For example, the 2016 peace agreement with FARC/Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, that was supposed to end a half century of violence, did not work. There was less violence in some areas, but many of the pardoned FARC members moved their operations and continued their criminal activities in more remote areas. Soon there was more FARC violence than before although it was now happening in rural areas that had previously been peaceful.

In 2017 FARC demobilized, as agreed. The demobilization did not bring peace because the demobilized FARC members then formed nearly three dozen new gangs that engaged in a variety of criminal activities including robbery, drug dealing, kidnapping for ransom and multiple other forms of violent mischief. These crimes are rarely punished because the gangs either bribe, intimidate or murder judges presiding over these cases.

The mayhem is enhanced by thousands of landmines still present in some areas. Police and soldiers in rural areas often engage in illegal activities rather than trying to prevent them. Corruption among long enforcement personnel is the norm, especially in rural areas where it’s easier for security personnel to conceal what they are up to. This is especially true when international drug cartels are involved. The cartels regularly offer security personnel a choice; take the bribe money or get killed for opposing the gangs.

Then there are the problems caused by millions of refugees leaving Venezuela. Neighboring Columbia offered them amnesty and refuge, which most of the Venezuelans accepted. Some of the Venezuelans moved on to Europe or the United States for better opportunities. The Americans asked the Colombians to block the movement of Colombians and Venezuelans to the United States, and paid Colombia a substantial sum to make it happen. Some migration was blocked, but many refugees got to the U.S. border anyway.

Venezuela has the allegedly largest oil reserves in the world and a lot of problems caused by all that money. It wasn’t helping the average Venezuelan. The endless violence in Venezuela means it is safer to be a Venezuelan anywhere but Venezuela. The primary cause of this is local strongman Nicolas Maduro, who has remained in control since 2020 because he purchased the support of military commanders, armed militias and foreign allies like Russia, China, Iran and Cuba. Maduro would have no useful foreign allies if it were not for the huge oil resources Venezuela sits on. The oil wealth has long been a source of political discord and violence and that is what has kept Maduro alive.

The oil wealth is only a century old. Oil production grew rapidly in the 1920s so that, when World War II broke out in 1939, Venezuela was the third largest producer after the United States and Russia. On the downside Venezuelan oil was more expensive to produce and refine because of its tar-like consistency. That meant Venezuela received less money per barrel than other nations. While Venezuela has the world’s largest proven reserves of oil still in the ground, this petroleum is not as valuable or as easy to pump and sell as elsewhere. That is a minor problem compared to chronic corruption. This has been the case since the beginning, before Spanish colonial rule was overthrown in the early 19th century. The post-colonial governments were largely democratic and less corrupt but not by much. The oil industry was owned by a few families, and these families spent a lot of that money to maintain their ownership. Venezuelan oil assets were not nationalized until the 1970s and at that point government careers became far more attractive.

How to handle oil income was always a political issue but one reform government after another was corrupted by the oil wealth. The Maduro government began as another populist reform movement and quickly morphed into another corrupt cartel of cronies. One unique feature of the current corrupt rulers is that they have managed to do more economic harm to Venezuela than any previous political group. Moreover, the current government is relying more on foreign governments to survive. Worst of all, the democratic opposition is more fragmented and unable to agree on how to remove the current dictatorship. Most of the 31 million remaining Venezuelans are barely surviving. That is what drove over seven million to flee the country. Those remaining are fixated on survival, not reforming the government.

The security forces are first in line with any economic benefits available. Maduro pays attention to advisors from Cuba, Russia and China. All three told him to allow some free enterprise because in small doses it boosts the economy without threatening Maduro’s rule. Maduro was also advised to let anyone leave the country if they wanted to, but to strictly control who could get back in. The basic advice was to remain in power because eventually the regional and international pressure would decline and ways around the sanctions would be found. Iran had nothing encouraging to say about that approach. This was what Russia was doing and, while Russia said they were doing fine in the face of continued sanctions, the average Russian described a different and less encouraging reality. This was especially true since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Western nations, who provide customers and services that make Venezuelan oil profitable, can apply pressure on Maduro to behave. Maduro has not cooperated and currently the United States is offering a $15 million reward to anyone or any group that will make it possible for the U.S. to arrest and try Maduro for his crimes. As a cornered despot, Maduro must continue to rule or risk ending up in an American prison. Staying in power and avoiding a rebellion by angry Venezuelans forced Maduro to allow new presidential elections. Maduro believed he could manipulate the election process and get himself installed as a legitimate head of state. That would make him immune to any U.S. efforts to move Maduro to an American penitentiary.

National leaders trying to flee their country with large amounts of money now have to deal with international restrictions on taking that much money with you. In the last decade international regulators helped Nigeria reclaim large sums which larcenous governors of Nigerian states sought to take with them into exile. Stolen money is no good if the only place you can take it is Iran, Cuba or North Korea. Cuba will help wealthy people bring their stolen money to Cuba but expects the wealthy visitor to pay large sums to the Cuban government to remain free and wealthy in communist Cuba. In late 2025 Cuba is not a pleasant place to be. The economy is a mess, most of the population is living in poverty and the national electricity system is falling apart, with frequent blackouts.

North Korea is another option, but few wealthy outlaws take it because the North Koreans will take your wealth and then expel you if they have a chance to do so. Iran is somewhere in between. They will tax your wealth but living in an Islamic religious dictatorship is not pleasant for a foreigner.