August 8, 2026: Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it began recruiting convicts from prisons. If a convict soldier survived a certain period at the front, they received a pardon. So far, several hundred thousand convicts have served as infantry for the war in Ukraine. This is not a new policy, for in World War II Josef Stalin ordered the formation of Penal Battalions in 1942, and these men, called shtrafbats, were encouraged by a secret police machine-gun emplaced behind them to kill any soldiers who hesitated or retreated. Over 400,000 shtrafbats served during the Great Patriotic War, as World War II was called in Russia. Most did not survive the war, although those who performed heroically or accomplished a significant battlefield feat were often promoted, or restored to their pre-shtrafbats rank and received medals. Total losses in that war were 27 million, about 13 percent of the prewar population. Most of the losses were civilians caught in the middle of the largest and most devastating war of the 20 ^th Century.

In the Ukraine war, Russian shtrafbats are treated in a similar fashion, although rehabilitated Russian soldiers will often desert rather than return to the Ukrainian battles, where drones in the air and on the ground make life miserable and short for Russians unfortunate enough to find themselves there. In at least one battle, the average lifespan of Russian soldiers was about 30 minutes.

Russia has been having other problems. Since they unexpectedly invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russian soldiers have been seeking ways to avoid going to war. Russians quickly realized that Ukraine was a dangerous place for armed Russians. For Russian deserters, Russia was also a dangerous place to be. The penalty for desertion, if caught and convicted, is ten years in prison. After that, you are considered an unreliable traitor in Russia. If deserters leave Russia for another country, they are often seen as possibly dangerous visitors, and some are accused of being spies or saboteurs.

The growing number of Russian soldiers deserting the army is an obvious sign of the unpopularity of the war in Ukraine. It’s illegal in Russia to openly oppose the war. Laws that made opposition to the war illegal are a recent development. This means the Russian media cannot mention that Russian forces have suffered 1.5 million dead, wounded, and missing so far. The growing number of deserters is something the government is keen to keep secret. Military-age Russian men are willing to do just about anything to avoid fighting in Ukraine. So far, over a million military-age men have fled the country to avoid the war in Ukraine. Getting out of Russia legally is a problem but not impossible to solve. These men believe the war will continue until Russia gets a new leader.