January 15, 2026: Last month an American drone attack killed two senior Al Shabab technical experts. Abdullahi Osman Mohamed/Engineer Ismail, and Abdikarim Mohamed Hersi/Qoorleex. Ismail was in charge acquiring explosives and designing bombs. Qoorleex was in charge of propaganda operations in Somalia.

Somalia hasn’t changed much during the last few years. In 2025 the UN continued to maintain a peacekeeping force in Somalia. U.S. drones and warplanes continue to attack Islamic terrorist operations in various areas of Somalia. Islamic terrorist group Al Shabab continues to be active. Piracy returned to waters off the Somali coast. Al Shabab and militia violence continues against government officials.

Governments don’t function well in Somalia but criminal organizations are another matter. The largest criminal organization in Somalia is al Shabaab. Given the history of Somalia that should not be a surprise. Britain administered Somalia from 1884 to 1960 and after much effort imposed more peace, prosperity and unity than the region had ever known. That lasted until about two decades after independence and then the usual bad habits began tearing Somalia apart again. The tribal/clan rivalries kept the pot boiling and even the rise of a clean government party and Islamic Courts after 2001. This was based on installing a religious dictatorship. That backfired and turned into another warlord group called al Shabaab. That caused even more Somalis to flee their homeland and led to even more problems as Somali refugees throughout Africa and worldwide misbehaved in the nations that took them in. While doing that Somalis acquired a reputation for organized violence and criminal behavior as well as entrepreneurial success. This led to a current decision by the United States to deport a number of Somali refugees who were caught defrauding social service agencies of nearly $10 billion.

Despite relative peace and prosperity, by 2025 Somalia was unable to turn that into a more permanent condition by holding national elections. Instead, most Somali factions agreed to rely on a system that involved clan elders meeting and working out agreements. Somalia has long been a failed state and, after over a decade of peacekeeping, massive foreign aid and visible progress, corruption and tribalism continued to block economic progress.

Al Shabaab, a local Islamic radical group, was defeated and driven from cities and towns in 2011 but is still around. So is the traditional clan violence, organized crime, and banditry. All these are ancient Somali traditions and al Shabaab survives by reverting to that and becoming the major criminal organizations in some parts of the country. Extortion, smuggling, ransoms and so on have sustained the Islamic terror group. One of the most lucrative sources of plunder is the elected Somali government, propped up by foreign aid, most of which gets stolen. Despite all that, Somalia is still a failed state that defies every attempt at nation building. The situation is worse than it appears because Somalia was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over economic land and water issues.

The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight. There is not a lot of enthusiasm among local leaders for a national government, but all that foreign aid is welcome because it can be taken without risking another clan feud. Piracy has returned and so has political violence. Somali smolders as it always has and not a lot has changed while some aspects have gotten worse.

Meanwhile, al Shabaab still has a lot of popular support. The majority of Somalis oppose Islamic terrorism but up to 20 percent support or tolerate groups like al Shabaab. The main reason for the support is desperation for a solution to the poverty, corruption, factionalism and chaos that makes Somalia such a dangerous place to live in. Overcoming those ancient traditions is the main obstacle to peace and there is no quick solution. Al Shabaab survives because its leaders concentrate on finances and pay its bills.

The source of the piracy problem is chaos in the African nation of Somalia on the east coast of the Red Sea and the Arab nation of Yemen on the west coast. In Somalia, Al Shabab Islamic terrorists and smugglers turned pirates have been attacking shipping for over a decade. Worldwide, attacks on cargo ships, and an occasional tanker, are still a problem. Many ships were boarded and the crews robbed. There are also attempts to kidnap crew members and hold them for ransom.

The hostages are used for taking control of the ship and moving it to a different location. Pirates rarely have any knowledge or experience operating these ships. Kidnapped crew are taken ashore and held until a ransom is paid. In December 2023 a large cargo ship was hijacked and taken to Somalia. This was the first hijacking since 2017.

As recently as 2018 piracy was still a problem off the Somali coast, just not the kind that creates headlines in the international mass media. The pirates adapted and in 2017 there were nine pirate attacks off the Somali coast, up from two in 2016. This was notable because worldwide pirate activity hit a 22 year low with 188 attacks in 2017, mostly far away from Somalia in places like the west coast of Africa and Southeast Asia. Those 188 attacks created damage worth $7 billion, with 80 percent of it absorbed by the ships and their owners. Higher insurance rates and operating costs were the major additional costs. That is an issue off Somalia where higher insurance costs are still a problem and getting worse because of the ineffectiveness of defending warships this time.

Back in 2011 there were 327 attacks off the Somali coast. The solution was an international anti-piracy effort that continues. But shipping companies still have to pay higher insurance rates for their ships that operate in the danger zone extending far out into the Indian Ocean. At the end of 2017 the maritime insurance companies had real reason to be worried. In November 2017, for the first time since 2014, the international anti-piracy patrol arrested six Somali pirates who were caught firing on and trying to board ships off the Somali coast.

Now the peacekeepers and western special operations forces are returning. Since East African nations suffer from the disrupted trade, they are sending more of their soldiers to help reduce the mayhem and attacks on shipping emanating from Somalia

Major suppliers of foreign aid restored suspended aid programs. The United States ordered several hundred special operations and other troops to return to Somalia. American Special Forces and SEAL operators were again training and advising their Somali counterparts. The American troops in Somalia also handled intelligence collection and monitoring things in general.

This continued from a major American special operations base in neighboring Djibouti as well as the use of American drones, also based in Djibouti, to search for Islamic terrorists and carry out airstrikes when the opportunity presents itself. After a year or so of indecision by the Americans, the U.S. resumed regular air strikes against Al Shabab and other groups interfering with aid shipments or the new Somali government. This led to several hundred drone airstrikes that killed thousands of al Shabab and other Islamic terrorist group members.