January 24, 2026: Syria’s new leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has forced the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces/SDF o ut of the area and is regaining control over the oil fields and natural gas extraction facilities in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Raqqah provinces. These are expected to be back in production by the end of the year. To complete the repairs and upgrades to the oil and gas facilities will require foreign investment. There must be assurances that the country will remain peaceful to keep the foreign investments coming.

Ahmad al-Sharaa is rebuilding the Syrian armed forces. He believes the key factor is obtaining men who are good Moslems, literate, physically fit, and unquestionably loyal to him. Initially that means only Sunni Moslems who had not served in the Assad military were eligible. There were some other restrictions, like not being able to smoke while on duty. Another aspect of recruit training is the weeklong refresher course on Islam. Al-Sharaa believes the religious indoctrination will ensure that all recruits completing basic training will be loyal. Only 600 of the first batch of 1,400 recruits completed the training. The Shia minority, especially the Alawites and the Kurds were not eligible for military service. The Assads, who ruled Syria for over sixty years, were Alawite. The Kurds have their own American-backed army and control about a third of Syria. If al-Sharaa wants to control all of Syria, he will have to make a deal with the Kurds. He has already made peace with the United States and all of Syria’s neighbors, including Israel. Al-Sharaa is creating new armed forces that will hopefully defend Syria and help maintain order within Syria if necessary. With that degree of internal security, foreign investors will return to help rebuild the economy.

Last year Ahmad al-Sharaa became the first Syrian leader to visit America. He met with the U.S. president and discussed the future of Syrian American relations. Sharaa discussed U.S.-Syrian cooperation suppressing ISIS Islamic terrorists. Sharaa seeks to make peace with all his neighbors. Relations with Russia were resumed, along with plans to restore Russian use of bases at Hmeimim and Tartus. Trade agreements with Russia were restored and Russia is resuming previous trade and business relationships and contracts.

Because of damaged power stations, Syria has frequent rolling blackouts. A drought reduced food production and Russia resumed food exports to Syria. Considering Ahmad al-Sharaa’s efforts, the U.S. Britain and most other Western nations removed their designation of Ahmad al-Sharaa as an Islamic terrorist.

Ahmad al-Sahara took control of Syria in late 2024 as the Assad government of Syria was driven into Russian exile by an eleven-day offensive organized by Islamic terrorists belonging to Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham/HTS and led by Ahmad al Sharaa. Turkey and Ukrainian special forces helped. This was an unexpected combination that no one inside or outside Syria saw coming.

The Assads had ruled Syria since 1970 and seemed firmly in control until they weren’t. Thirteen years of war were a factor. Heavy losses among Alawite soldiers who were the backbone of the Assad military was another factor. The Alawites realized that the wars were never going to end unless Assad had no troops to do the fighting. HTS/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leaders realized this and expected the Alawite troops to stand aside. They did and HTS had its eleven-day conquest of Syria.

HTS does not control the entire country and neither did the Assads. About 40 percent of Syria is controlled by Kurds, who had American support in an U.S. effort to destroy or greatly diminish Islamic terrorist groups in Syria. There were some American troops working with the Kurds and that helped keep the Assads and HTS out of the Kurdish region.

HTS faced its most difficult task as it sought to establish a new government in Syria. There were still several minorities to deal with, including the Kurds and Alawites. HTS had one chance to approach these many minorities with a peace deal and assurances that minorities and their interests would be part of the new government.

The peace and government reorganization was threatened by some HTS leaders who supported Islamic Sharia government or another kleptocracy like the one that made the Assads rich. When the Assads left Syria, most of their $5 billion dollar fortune was stashed in various foreign bank accounts. The Assads may have to give some of that cash to Russia because the HTS government is offering the Russians renewed access to their Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base in western Syria. There are still a few Russian soldiers at those bases, mainly to prevent looters from trashing the facilities.

In the end, the most difficult task for HTS was to establish a new government and get the economy going. The United States, Britain and Germany negotiated with HTS to establish diplomatic relations and resume foreign aid deliveries.

HTS has a limited number of trusted Syrian officials and needs a lot more to establish a national government loyal to HTS and somewhat resistant to the Middle Eastern culture of corruption. Each minority in Syria wants a fair allocation of government jobs for its people. That is thousands of jobs to deal with. HTS left many current incumbents in their jobs and hoped these men and women would not become a problem.

HTS leaders had little experience running a national government, but many worked in the HTS government that, for over a decade, ruled most of Idlib Province in northwestern Syria. In Syria as a whole there were many different power structures. For example, in Kurdish Syria there is a Kurdish government but the real power resides with a few Kurdish militia leaders. There are similar situations in other parts of Syria. HTS had to adapt to this rather than trying to eliminate governmental systems that worked for decades. No government was the worst situation and HTS sought to ensure that there was some kind of functioning government throughout Syria. Otherwise HTS was not controlling the country, but pretending to.