September 27, 2024: In Ukraine the use of numerous different missiles in large quantities has led NATO military planners to reexamine the state of their own missile arsenal, as well as BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense) systems. What is going on in Ukraine is a demonstration of what World War 3 would be like if Russia tried to attack nations of the NATO alliance. That is unlikely because the population of NATO without the United States and Canada is still over 600 million people and larger military forces than Russia can deploy. Ukraine, a nation with a population of 40 million, stopped the invading Russian force. Russia has a population of 140 million but was unable to muster sufficient forces to defeat Ukraine and now Ukrainian troops have invaded Russia.

NATO military planners realize that the Ukrainians outfought the Russians and defeated the invasion. Military planners always examine the worst case situation, just to be on the safe side of things. NATO planners assume a competent Russian could do a lot of damage to unprepared NATO countries. NATO exists to protect all its members and, if NATO members cannot muster a sufficient defense, it means some NATO nations are going to suffer lots of casualties and damage as well as civilian casualties to people caught in the crossfire.

What’s worse, the situation in Ukraine could have happened even if Ukraine were a NATO member. Some NATO officials have pointed out that the NATO alliance does not mandate NATO member nations sending troops. They could just send weapons and other supplies. This is what NATO has done for Ukraine, in addition to the United States, the largest NATO member, placing restrictions on how Ukraine can use NATO supplied weapons. The U.S. government doesn’t want Ukraine firing American or NATO long range weapons deep into Russia. The U.S. government fears that might trigger a nuclear war. This is nonsense because no one wants an actual nuclear war because it would mean the destruction of Russia, and possibly some NATO nations that supplied the long-range weapons. Two European NATO members, France and Britain, have built and deployed strategic nuclear weapons on effectively invulnerable ballistic missile submarines. For the Russians, that means the threat of nuclear retaliation does not have to come from the Americans. Angry European nuclear powers are scarier to the Russians than threats from the United States.

Faced with all these threats, NATO nations assume there won’t be a nuclear war because it will be one of mutually assured destruction. Instead Russia might use its growing arsenal of missiles armed with non-nuclear warheads. NATO nations can obtain weapons, like Patriot missiles, to defend themselves from Russian missile attacks. Currently, obtaining Patriot missiles has been difficult because Ukraine has used hundreds of them to deal with incessant Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian military and civilian targets.

NATO nations fear future threats from Russia and seek to upgrade their air defenses, especially their supply of Patriot missiles. The American manufacturer of these missiles is increasing production and those increases will continue after the Ukraine war is over in order to replace depleted NATO country stockpiles.

There is also demand from Middle Eastern Patriot users to increase their Patriot stockpiles to deal with the growing Iranian threat. Persian Gulf Patriot users have their oil extraction and shipping operations near the coast and are vulnerable to an Iranian attack. Iran has to smuggle its oil out because of long-standing economic sanctions. The success of Patriot in Ukraine has attracted new customers seeking to buy Patriot batteries and missiles.

One reason Patriot is so popular with new users is that the manufacturer has increased the shelf life of missiles to over 22 years. That means missiles in storage can be kept useful for decades via periodic upgrades and replacement of expendable parts like batteries. Until the Ukraine War came along the U.S. Army, the initial and still primary owner of Patriot systems, was seeking designs for a Patriot replacement. The success of Patriot in Ukraine put the replacement program on hold. That means Patriot will remain the air defense missile of choice for at least another decade.