January 24, 2025: Ukraine is carrying out more attacks on targets deep inside Russia using a new generation of long-range drones. Ukraine is also producing over 100,000 drones a month, including more new types, especially those for attacking targets thousands of kilometers away.

Most modern wars eventually involve the development of new technologies and tactics. In the Ukraine Russia War it was drones. By late 2023 both sides had turned to drones, which were cheaper, easier to obtain and provided more flexible alternatives. It was soon discovered that drones had a seemingly endless number of new capabilities. One of the more crucial qualities was the ease of obtaining drones and modifying them or building larger or smaller versions. The technology required for current drone warfare evolved over the last few decades as the commercial quadcopters and hobbyist fixed wing remotely controlled aircraft achieved a degree of maturity in design and reliability. This made it possible for users or developers to confidently and quickly modify existing drones t0 meet their needs.

Most of the resulting drones were short range models operating no farther than ten kilometers from their user. This meant the combat zone was a much more dangerous place than it ever had been in the past. The surveillance was constant and round the clock. More expensive drones with night-vision sensors, usually based on a combination of object and heat detection and interpretation, provided adequate surveillance at night or in fog or misty conditions.

Then there are logistical considerations. Reusable drones have to be recharged or refueled between missions. Drones built as single-use weapons have to be checked out before actual use. This is especially true for the long-range attack models. These fixed-wing drones go after targets a thousand kilometers or more distant and tend to use a single diesel or gasoline fueled engine. These engines must be sturdy and reliable because everything depends on a reliable propulsion system. Another critical component is the navigation and target acquisition system. Resistance to electronic jamming is essential. Electronic jamming technology is constantly evolving to deal with improved guidance systems that make earlier jammers ineffective or less effective. This makes every new drone design likely to be compromised and obsolete in short order. With the inexpensive technology drones use, rapid evolution is easier to achieve and the ability to quickly develop ways to disrupt new tech is essential.

Currently Ukraine has been having some success at attacking key Russian military targets inside Russia. There are over a hundred of these targets in western Russia and many as much as 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine. Russia does not have enough air defense systems to defend all of these targets. Ukraine has a good intelligence network inside Russia, as well as access to American military satellite photos that can detect the status of potential targets in near-real time. The satellites are also used to determine how much damage each attack did. The agents inside Russia double check these satellite estimates to account for Russian satellite surveillance deception measures. Russia has been using deception and disinformation tactics for over a century, During the Cold War there was an organization dedicated to deceiving American satellite surveillance. The extent of this effort was not discovered until the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and the Russian secret archives were accessible by foreign researchers for a short time. The Ukrainians know of all this because Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 1991.

Because of all this the Ukrainians make an exceptional effort to verify what and where Russian targets are and how much damage was done by a subsequent Ukrainian missile or long-range drone attack.

In 2025 Ukraine is producing over 2,000 long range drones a month and modifying them to avoid Russian detection methods. Russia is aware of these developments and is scrambling to come up with countermeasures. Those won’t be known until the Ukrainians encounter them, then decide when to go public with that information.

Russia has long had sufficient long range weapons to hit targets anywhere in Ukraine. Now the Ukrainians can do this to the Russians.