October 26, 2025: Russian leaders believe that Russia maintains the initiative in Ukraine and is poised for victory. Few NATO leaders fear that the United States, the West, and Ukraine have been defeated and will not prevail. Despite this, Russian officials continue to believe that Ukraine will eventually be conquered.

Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia is decisively winning in Ukraine, stating that Russia has the strategic initiative along the thousand kilometers long front line. Putin believes his forces are on the verge of victory and that the Ukrainians need to realize what is happening in the combat zone. Other Russian leaders insist that if Ukraine does not accept the Russian view of the situation and make peace on Russian terms, they would suffer much heavier losses. This attitude is based on the Russian belief that NATO nations will eventually tire of pouring all the military and economic aid into Ukraine. That is not happening and many Russian leaders and Russians in general prefer to believe that eventually Russia will have the edge in military power.

The reality is that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion began in 2022 are having serious negative impacts on the Russian economy. At the same time the Ukrainian economy has been growing and the Ukrainians are manufacturing a growing proportion of the weapons and munitions they need to win the war. Western firms are investing in Ukrainian industry and see Ukraine as the eventual winner. A growing proportion of the western aid to Ukraine is in the form of investments in the Ukrainian economy.

Russian leaders tried to hide the economic losses from the Russian people, but that is no longer possible. The sanctions have created growing shortages of consumer as well as military goods in Russia. While Russia can obtain needed items from China and North Korea, these goods must be paid for. Russia has also run out of soldiers. Over a million men have died, been disabled or deserted. This has forced Russia to rely on mercenaries from North Korea, Cuba and any other country which allows them to recruit soldiers. Russia has to pay more and more to entice these foreigners to fight for them. That becomes more difficult as Russian forces suffer more losses and are unable to advance. Since the 2022 invasion, Russia has lost most of the Ukrainian territory it occupied since 2014 and captured in the first few months of the current war. Ukrainian counter attacks continue to push the Russians out and Ukraine now believes that they will be able to regain all the Russian occupied territory, including the Crimean Peni

If Ukraine can achieve this, Russian leaders will be hard pressed to justify why all these personnel and financial losses, as well as the crippling economic sanctions were necessary. Russia is not only losing the war they started, but they are also losing credibility with their own people. Russian leaders know that the only way they can get the sanctions lifted is to make peace and Ukraine is in a position to get what it wants from an impoverished and militarily weakened Russia.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who took Russia into this war with assurances that victory would be quick and cheap, has been disgraced. Putin still claims a Russian victory is possible, but is reluctant to negotiate with Ukraine to end hostilities. An official end to the war could mean an end to Putin’s role as Russia’s leader.