February 17, 2025: In early December 2024, the Assad government of Syria was driven out of power and into Russian exile by an eleven-day offensive organized by former Islamic terrorists belonging to HTS and led by Ahmad al Sharaa. Turkey and Ukrainian special forces helped. This was an unexpected combination that no one inside or outside Syria saw coming.

The Assads had ruled Syria since 1970 and seemed firmly in control until they weren’t. Thirteen years of war turned out to be a factor. Heavy losses among Alawite soldiers who were the backbone of the Assad military was a factor. The Alawites realized that the wars were never going to end unless Assad had no troops to do the fighting. HTS leaders realized this and expected the Alawite troops to stand aside. They did and HTS had its eleven-day conquest of Syria.

HTS does not control the entire country and neither did the Assads. About 40 percent of Syria is controlled by Kurds, who had American support in an U.S. effort to destroy or greatly diminish Islamic terrorist groups in Syria. There were some American troops working with the Kurds and that helped keep the Assads and HTS out of the Kurdish region.

HTS faced its most difficult task as it sought to establish a new government in Syria. There were still several minorities to deal with, including the Kurds and Alawites. HTS had one chance to approach these many minorities with a peace deal and assurances that minorities and their interests would be part of the new government.

The peace and government reorganization was threatened by some HTS leaders who supported Islamic Sharia government or another kleptocracy like the one that made the Assads rich. When the Assads left Syria, most of their $5 billion dollar fortune was stashed in various foreign bank accounts. The Assads may have to give some of that cash to Russia because the HTS government is offering the Russians renewed access to their Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base in western Syria. There are still a few Russian soldiers at those bases, mainly to prevent looters from trashing the facilities.

In the end, the most difficult task for HTS will be to establish a new government and get the economy going. So far, the United States, Britain and Germany are negotiating with HTS to establish diplomatic relations and resume foreign aid deliveries.

HTS has a limited number of trusted Syrian officials and needs a lot more to establish a national government loyal to HTS and somewhat resistant to the Middle Eastern culture of corruption. Each minority in Syria wants a fair allocation of government jobs for its people. That is thousands of jobs to deal with. HTS is leaving many current incumbents in their jobs and hoping these men and women will not become a problem.

HTS leaders have little experience running a national government, but many have worked in the HTS government that, for over a decade, ruled most of Idlib Province in northwestern Syria. In Syria as a whole there are many different power structures. For example, in Kurdish Syria there is a Kurdish government but the real power resides with a few Kurdish militia leaders. There are similar situations in other parts of Syria. HTS has to adapt to this rather than trying to eliminate governmental systems that have worked for decades. No government is the worst situation and HTS is hustling to ensure that there is some kind of functioning government throughout Syria. Otherwise HTS is not controlling the country, it’s only pretending to.