March 5, 2025: A year after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian forces were in trouble. They were no longer making much progress but were still suffering heavy losses. After three years of fighting Russia has lost nearly a million soldiers. This includes dead, disabled, deserters, prisoners and doesn’t include over a million military age men who fled the country to avoid military service. Not surprisingly, Russia has a labor shortage. Then there is the heavily sanctioned economy, which Russia made worse by putting the economy on a war footing. Military production had priority and civilian needs declined to the point where over a third of Russians were living in poverty.

Russia’s major export, oil, has to be sold at a discount because it is illegal for oil importers to accept oil from Russia. Amidst all this economic crisis and ruin, Russia decided they had nothing to lose by launching a shadow war against NATO countries. This included a sabotage campaign where Russia paid criminals in Europe to carry out these attacks. European security agencies were alert to these Russian plans and police arrested local criminals hired by Russian agents to carry out sabotage attacks. With these Russian efforts no longer secret, Russian recruiting efforts have failed because of fears that anyone who worked for Russia would be quickly identified and arrested. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, public opinion in Europe has been hostile to Russia.

There have been a few railway accidents that are now being reexamined to see if they were acts of sabotage. Russian jamming of GPS signals continues to be a problem in several European countries. Russia denies any involvement but the evidence of Russian complicity grows with each incident. In this respect Russia is at war with European nations and these attacks may eventually lead to more sanctions against Russia. The economic sanctions already imposed on Russia by Western trading partners are seen by Russians as an attack on their economy. That was the intention of the sanctions but the Russians don’t consider themselves deserving of such attacks.

This shadow war, where no one admits they are attacking anyone, is likely to continue as long as Russia is considered an outlaw nation because of its continued aggression inside Ukraine. Economic attacks on Russia have hurt and Russian leader Vladimir Putin has openly discussed a negotiated settlement to end the Ukraine War and get Russia out from under all those sanctions.