October 22, 2025: Ukraine has secured many victories over Russia since the Russian invasion in 2022. Despite these successes, Russian leaders believe they will eventually conquer all of Ukraine. Ukrainians, however, believe that economic sanctions and heavy combat losses will weaken Russia sufficiently to enable Ukraine to reclaim all territory occupied by Russia. Someone is mistaken, and if history is any indication, both sides may be overly optimistic about the war’s outcome.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin insists that Russia will not lose in Ukraine and claims that Russia has rarely lost a war. In reality, Russia has faced defeat 38 times in the past 1,100 years since the Russian state was established in 862. The first defeat came in 941 when the Rus, as Russians were then known, were defeated by the Byzantine Empire. More recent defeats include 1917, when Russia was defeated by German and Austro-Hungarian forces and signed a peace treaty to that effect; the 1979–89 Soviet-Afghan War; and the 1994–96 First Chechen War.

One of the intriguing after-effects of World War I was that the Germans believed in 1917–1918 that they could send most of their troops from the Russian front to reinforce a planned offensive against Allied French and British forces to break the trench warfare deadlock. This might have worked, except for the unexpected intervention of the Americans, who entered the war on the Allied side because Germany refused to stop its submarines from attacking American ships. The Americans supplied the Allies with various goods but few weapons. The Germans considered any Allied imports from the United States as aiding the Allied war effort.

The 1918 German Victory Offensive failed, causing the German army to disintegrate. Returning soldiers often participated in armed efforts to determine the nature of post-imperial Germany’s government. Russia was undergoing similar turmoil. By the 1930s, Germany had a militaristic Nazi government, while Russia developed an equally militaristic Communist government that transformed Russia into the Soviet Union. These two dictatorships went to war with each other in 1941, and by 1945, when the fighting ended, at least 70 million military and civilian deaths had occurred.

The Soviet Union suffered the most, losing about 27 million soldiers and civilians—approximately 14.5 percent of its pre-war population. The loss of so many men meant a generation of Russian women were unable to marry and had to make do with whatever work the government could provide.

Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union, suffered millions of starvation deaths in the 1930s as the Soviet government ordered nearly all Ukrainian crops exported, leaving little food for Ukrainians. Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin orchestrated this to obtain foreign currency to import machinery for an enormous military buildup. Much of this currency funded the construction of over 20,000 tanks and nearly as many military aircraft. Most of these tanks and aircraft were destroyed during the initial months of the German invasion in 1941. Stalin ordered many of his new weapons factories disassembled and relocated by train to the Ural Mountains, east of Moscow. These factories produced most of the tanks and aircraft that ultimately defeated the German invaders.

Russians refer to World War II as the Great Patriotic War and emphasize that Russian soldiers and weapons caused most of the German losses. They downplay Allied efforts and believe the Allies delayed their June 6, 1944, invasion of France to increase Russian losses. This is another persistent myth in Russia.

These World War II attitudes shape current Russian perspectives on NATO and its support for Ukraine. Russia does not label its current military operations in Ukraine an invasion but rather a Special Military Operation to restore Russian control over parts of the former Soviet Union that rebelled and sought independence. NATO is blamed for supporting and encouraging this defiance. Russia views NATO, a mutual defense organization founded in 1949, as part of a plot to eventually attack Russia. This worldview complicates efforts to negotiate a peace treaty in Ukraine or engage in rational discussions to end Russian aggression. Diplomats from NATO countries and Ukrainian leaders are aware of this. Technically, these Russian attitudes make peace between Russia and Ukraine impossible. Yet the presence of aggressive Russian forces in Ukraine remains a reality that all parties must confront.