July 24, 2026: Fourteen years ago, Russia swindled its way into owning the Crimean Peninsula. It started with Ukraine leasing parts of Crimea to host bases used by the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Then Russia snuck several thousand Russian Spetsnaz special forces into Crimea in 2014 and grabbed it by force. Ukraine is presently completing its reconquest of Crimea. To make this happen, the few roads linking Russia and Crimea are under attack. Modern combat drones, which Ukrainians developed to fight the Russian invaders, are now being used to destroy Russian military bases, air defense systems, roads, port facilities, and fuel infrastructure in Crimea. Most Russian civilians in Crimea have returned to Russia during the last year.

Since 2024, Russia has spent nearly $12 billion to improve the roads and other transportation connecting Crimea to Russia. Now the Ukrainians are blowing it all up, day by day. Satellite photos show more and more burned-out Russian trucks along roads that are now missing vital bridges but covered by regular patrols by Ukrainian attack drones.

Russian political and military leaders admit that the liberation of Crimea and occupied provinces in eastern Ukraine is going to happen sooner rather than later. This year it is Ukrainian forces that are regaining ground while Russia has been unable to recruit enough new soldiers to replace those lost in Ukraine. Russia has been at war in Ukraine longer than it was during World War II, fighting and defeating the German invaders. This is something that is unpopular in Russia and the reason why Russia can’t find enough men to replace losses in Ukraine.

There have been some peace talks, but Vladimir Putin is still looking for a suitable way for himself to admit defeat. The Russian people and economy have struggled through four years of economic sanctions, and most Russians, according to polls and Russian bloggers, just want the war to be over. They don’t care if Ukraine gets all its territory back; they just want the war and all its attendant privation to end. One day soon, Ukraine and Russia will simply announce that the war is over, or ignore the situation and just move. Putin does not want to admit defeat, and as long as Ukraine gets all its Russian-occupied territory back, doesn’t care about an official declaration of victory.

Russia didn’t vigorously defend Crimea because the Ukrainians had tied up most Russian military resources by a year-long series of attacks on economic and military targets deep inside Russia. The Russian people are angry about a war that cost them so much in terms of lives lost and a growing poverty rate. Millions of Russian men were killed, disabled, or deserted, while many more fled the country to avoid it.