July 28, 2026:
The American Navy has become more active in helping the Philippines block China from taking areas of the South China Sea that are legally Filipino. American warships on patrol alongside Filipino vessels are substantially more intimidating when Chinese Navy and Coast Guard vessels show up. Recently, there were incidents of Chinese warships ramming smaller Filipino ships as well as using water cannon against them. Ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea continue to escalate as the Chinese openly and aggressively drive Filipino navy ships from areas the Philippines has long controlled. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Netherlands ruled that, under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, in a case brought by the Philippines in 2013 protesting Chinese claims and activities in the South China Sea, China was in the wrong. China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea. Over the last seventeen years, China has been increasingly aggressive while asserting those claims. This recently escalated to more tangible things like the artificial islands built throughout the South China Sea and garrisoned with heavily armed Chinese forces.
The American and other Western and local allies like Australia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore send warships and aircraft into the disputed areas to confront the Chinese. The message is that if China wants to start World War 3 in the South China Sea, the opposition will be substantial and include most of China’s neighbors.
An added problem for the Chinese was the 2022 election of Ferdinand Bongbong Romualdez Marcos Jr. as the president of the Philippines. Nicknamed Bongbong, the new president was the son of a prior ousted Filipino president. Bongbong was a populist reformer who delivered on his campaign promises to strengthen military alliances with the United States and with local nations also threatened by China.
The Philippines increased its military presence and activities in the South China Sea, especially around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, where it claims sovereignty over parts of the disputed waters and features. The country has also received support from its allies, such as America, Japan, and Australia, in conducting joint exercises and patrols, as well as providing military assistance and equipment. However, China has also intensified its operations and use of coercion in the region, deploying more ships, aircraft, and missiles, and building new structures and facilities on the artificial islands it occupies.
The Philippines has maintained a balance between its alliance with the Americans and its economic ties with China. The Philippines reaffirmed its commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the Americans, which provide for mutual defense and security cooperation, as well as access to military bases and facilities. The country has also welcomed American support for its maritime claims and rights in the South China Sea, as well as American sanctions against Chinese officials and entities involved in the disputes. However, the Philippines has also sought to improve diplomatic relations with China, which is its largest trading partner and a major source of investment.