July 29, 2026: Russian aviation manufacturers face growing maintenance and production challenges. For example, last month, an air force Tu-22M3 heavy bomber crashed during a training flight. The preliminary cause was a technical malfunction of the aircraft. This was the third Tu-22M3 loss due to malfunctions in three years. Similarly, last month, a Russian Boeing 737 nearly crashed over the Black Sea due to engine failure while en route to Arkhangelsk. At the last moment, the plane was able to return to its departure airport.

These incidents make clear the growing problems with aircraft maintenance in Russia . NATO sanctions have restricted access to essential parts, reducing efforts to properly maintain aircraft. Desperate to keep their aircraft in the air, Russia has resorted to taking parts of some aircraft and relying on expensive smuggled parts. With fewer aircraft flying more often, there is greater risk of accidents .

Problems first appeared in 2023, after a year of heavy combat. Then Ukraine used missiles and drones to attack airfields close to the Ukrainian border. This forced Russia to move many of its heavy bombers to airbases up to 6,000 kilometers from Ukraine. This made it more expensive and time-consuming for these bombers to carry and launch cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets. The additional wear and tear on these bombers reduced their useful lives.

Then came the Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb in mid-2025. Using a plan that took 18 months to develop, Ukraine managed to send trucks loaded with drones, which appeared to be crates of commercial goods. By remote control, the drones were launched, and their operators back in Ukraine guided the drones to attack and destroy or damage about a third of the Russian heavy bombers available. This left Russia with ten Tu-22M3 heavy bombers. These are no longer produced, with the last one entering service in 1993. Russia also has over 30 Tu-160M heavy bombers, which are still in production. Older versions of this bomber are being updated. This is a slow process, taking five years or more per aircraft.

The NATO sanctions are also disrupting production of Russian fighters and fighter-bombers, such as the Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and perhaps even the 10 new 6th-generation Su-57 aircraft. Production rates for these aircraft are only about 30 per year, which is not enough to replace training, obsolescence, and combat losses. Russian plans for a new heavy bomber are on hold because of the sanctions and the cost of the war in Ukraine.

Obviously, Russian commercial aviation is suffering similar, and in many cases worse, problems. The development and production of Russian-designed and manufactured airliners were eventually halted. Russia can no longer obtain spare parts and maintenance support for its Airbus and Boeing airliners, which account for 70 percent of Russian commercial airliners, and over 90 percent of all commercial flights are operated by these foreign airliners. Boeing and Airbus had sold or leased these aircraft to Russia and demanded their return after Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia refused, but was now cut off from manufacturer support and has to rely on smuggled parts and whatever help it can get from China. Currently, about twenty percent of these are grounded.