September 5, 2026:
Russia recently brought some 10,000 missiles out of storage to deal with the current missile shortage. Some of these missiles have components that have exceeded their shelf life and are no longer reliable. Russia discovered this when it tried to use these older missiles and found many did not work at all or exploded on launch. This is not a new phenomenon.
The American military spends over $30 million a year disposing of aging munitions. The shelf life of most munitions varies from 5-20 years, depending on the component, whether it's the shell, fuze, electronics, batteries, or propellant. Many munitions are nearing their expiration date. When that happens, you can either refurbish the munition (preferably with expensive missiles), disassemble and recycle it, or keep it and play the percentages.
Major nations must maintain millions of tons of munitions as War Reserve Stocks to provide a 30-60 day supply of ammo for the opening stages of a major war. It would take over a month for fresh supplies to begin arriving from factories. Replacing elderly weapons from the War Reserve leaves you with a constant supply of old munitions that have to be disposed of. Not long ago, they dumped the old munitions at sea, usually in very deep water. But that is no longer considered ecologically acceptable. Thus, they must pay to take apart and recycle the components.
The Department of War spends far more on refurbishing old munitions, usually missiles. Billions are spent to upgrade ballistic missiles and anti-aircraft missiles (both air-to-air and ground-to-air). Torpedoes, which have been around for over a century, have long been given this kind of attention. Artillery shells and large-caliber machine-gun (20mm and up) ammo are usually taken apart and recycled. That's because the propellant (a slow-burning explosive), detonators (to start the bang), and high-speed (or "high explosives") explosives are chemicals that degrade over time. The degradation makes the explosives less powerful and/or unstable. This makes the munitions less effective and more dangerous to their users.
To prevent these problems, most countries try to use up munitions before they expire. This is not always possible. Firing all the old artillery ammo in stock will wear out the artillery because the barrels are worn each time a shell is fired. Aircraft are expensive to fly, as they must be used to fire live missiles and bombs. So, they always have a lot of old munitions to dispose of.
The Russian solution to their current missile shortage is to produce a lot more ballistic missiles and long-range drones. Some of these missiles can be launched from heavy bombers. Russia may not want to risk losing more of these bombers because Ukraine has already destroyed a third of its heavy bomber force with drone strikes at airbases thousands of kilometers from Ukraine. Currently, Russia appears unable to build more than 40-50 missiles a month. Most of these are used within days, or a few weeks, of being manufactured. Ukraine is taking no chances and is regularly scouring reconnaissance drone photos of Russian weapons factories in addition to satellite photos and videos supplied by the Americans.