March 31, 2026: Unrest continues to erupt in South West State, which is 245 kilometers northwest of the capital Mogadishu. State officials, with the assistance of some local militias, want to secede and form an independent statelet. Army forces in the area have prevented that, so far. Previously the government ordered police to the southwestern town of Barawe to reinforce soldiers who were already there confronting local militias demanding changes in how the federal government is organized and functions. Last year the UN continued to maintain a peacekeeping force in Somalia. U.S. drones and warplanes continue to attack Islamic terrorists in various areas of Somalia. Islamic terrorist group Al Shabab continues to be active. Piracy returned to waters off the Somali coast. Al Shabab and militia violence continues against government officials.

Despite relative peace and prosperity, by 2025 Somalia was unable to turn that into a more permanent condition by holding national elections. Instead, most Somali factions agreed to rely on a system that involved clan elders meeting and working out agreements. Somalia has long been a failed state and over a decade of peacekeeping, massive foreign aid and visible progress, corruption and tribalism continued to block economic progress. Al Shabaab, a local Islamic radical group, was defeated and driven from cities and towns in 2011 but is still around. So are the traditional clan violence, organized crime, and banditry. All these are ancient Somali traditions and al Shabaab survives by reverting to that and becoming the major criminal organizations in some parts of the country. Extortion, smuggling, ransoms and so on have sustained the Islamic terror group. One of the most lucrative sources of plunder is the elected Somali government, propped up by foreign aid, most of which gets stolen.

Efforts to attract foreign investments have not gone well. The United States, along with a lot of other foreign investors have, since mid-2022 seen Somalia as safe enough for expensive investments. There were still problems investors had to deal with. While the Somali government has achieved a level of stability that encourages more investments, they have to understand that this stability has not eliminated al Shabaab or the corruption and clan loyalty. Somalia now has a stable democratic government. In mid-2021 the elected parliament finally approved a new 75-member cabinet. There was something for everyone, including a senior job for a former Islamic terrorist who was one of the founders of al Shabaab and is now working in the government religious affairs department. During the proceedings there were several al Shabaab mortar shells landing near the Parliament compound. There were no casualties. It’s been a long and tedious process to reach June 2021 when the new parliament met and approved the new prime minister selected by the president. This formation of a new government came after several years of efforts to overcome clan and warlord objections to democracy in general. The elections were held and results certified in May 2021, producing a parliament and new president. The prime minister was the one who actually f0rms a government by filling dozens of key jobs with candidates that would not cause disputes in parliament over who got what. Somalia is still dominated by the power of the clans and the blind loyalty to clan even when it harms national unity. Overcoming this factionalism in a democracy is often very difficult. So far it appears that a majority of Somali leaders are willing to give a clean government a chance to work in Somalia. The key test was forming the new government successfully. The stability came at a price because the United States, which supplies most of the foreign aid, agreed to funnel nearly all of it through the central government, which would then distribute the money to where it was needed the most for economic, security or political reasons. This gradually ran into problems as the clan loyalties of central government ministers became more of a factor in who got what and how much of that went to the minister for services rendered. Many Americans who have long worked in Somalia, as soldiers, aid workers or investors, warned that this would happen. At the same time the U.S. government remains hostile to the independent Somali states of Puntland and Somaliland in the north.

Despite all that, Somalia is still a failed state that defies every attempt at nation building. The situation is worse than it appears because Somalia was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over economic land and water issues. The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight. There is not a lot of enthusiasm among local leaders for a national government, but all that foreign aid is welcome because it can be taken without risking another clan feud. Piracy has returned and so has political violence. Somali smolders as it always has and not a lot has changed while some aspects have gotten worse.